NHL Western Preview [Podcast]

Everything. Division breakdown, final points standings. Hint: The Kings are brutal and the Red Wings look good... Listen at your own risk:



Thanks for listening, more to come next week. -- Derek

7 Habits of Highly Effective NHL Forecasting: Part VI

The North West: My best estimation is that this division will come down to a very tight 3-horse race. That level of competitiveness which has existed among the Flames, Canucks, Oilers, Wild and Avalanche will eliminate their odds at a high seed in the West, but condition them nicely for playoff-style hockey.

Calgary Flames
-- Started last season at a geriatric pace and it cost them. Mikka Kiprusoffs' lukewarm performance and sub-par conditioning was the focus during that stretch, events which certainly need to be avoided for the '09 Flames to be successful. Built from the Net out, their defense is as strong as ever. Unless Dion Phaneuf catches the Hollywood-girlfriend jinx he will compete for the Norris Trophy with support coming from Reighr, Sarich, Aucoin and Warrener (although cap issues might see one of the latter two be dealt). Their only significant changes were up-front, signing Mike Cammelleri and Todd Bertuzzi to replace Tanguay and Owen Nolan, respectively. I consider both of these at least marginal upgrades, especially considering Cam's upside and the chip on Bertuzzi's shoulder. Otherwise, Iginla is the best captain in hockey and one of the leagues' most adept goal-scorers. All things considered I think they have what it takes to win the division and advance a few rounds in the tourney.

2008 Record: 42-30-10, 3rd Northwest
'09 Projection: 44-27-11, 1st NW

Minnesota Wild
-- Are a team defined by the sum of their parts. They are the system: boring, defensive, effective. They are also -- notably -- the defending Champs of this very tough division. The Wild lost former captain and 30-goal scorer Brian Rolston to free agency and failed miserably filling that void. For some* reason free agents want to play in Minnesota about as bad as they want gonorrhea (*the only thing people hate more than the coach is the system he forces upon his players). They'll need to cripple other teams offensive output to repeat as division champs (which is feasible given that Edmonton is the only club with a thoroughly intimidating attack). In the last year of his contract, pending UFA Marion Gaborik will be celebrating either way: his freedom at the end of the year, or as the highest-payed player in team history. Playing for a contract, I anticipate 40+ goals for Mighty Marion (10+ GWG, anyone?) and equally exciting efforts from the most under-rated tender in the game: Nik Backstrom. Minni needs everything to go right for them to win and I think they lack the punch for a title run.

2008 Record:44-28-10, 1st Northwest
'09 Projection: 42-31-9, 3rd NW

Colorado Avalanche
-- OMG Joe Sakic is back! With that announcement the Avalanche and their fans have experienced the most exciting moment of the entire campaign -- 2 months before it even started. Thanks largely to Jose Theodore over-achieving in a contract year (and then leaving town) the Av's won an impressive 44 games on their way to a playoff appearance last year. This year, however, is a different story. They will ice the goaltending tandem of Andrew Raycroft and Peter Budaj behind a line-up that fails boost my confidence. Can you blame me with aging stars Foote, Sakic, and Hejduk featured alongside others who've also jumped the shark: Tucker, Hannan, Smyth? On the upside lies their younger players who old-new Coach Tony Granato will rely on this year and beyond (Stastny, Wolski, Svatos). The combination of pillow-ish offensive punch, age, questionable goaltending, and a new coaching regime means this team is trending down and has a very real possibility of missing the playoffs.

2008 Record:44-31-7, 2nd Northwest
'09 Projection: 39-34-9, 4th NW

Edmonton Oilers
-- finished the season as one of the hottest teams in the NHL. Kevin Lowe is building a winner and we are going to get a taste of that this season. Up front they boast diversity in their size, skill and talent: the finesse of Gagner and Hemsky, strength from Penner and Eric Cole (acquired through trade) and the finish from Horcoff and Cogliano. This is a sexy under-dog pick for those looking at NHL futures, but beware of their defensive abilities. In order to acquire Cole they dealt promising D-man Joni Pitkanen leaving Souray, Visnovsky and Staios anchoring the unstable, but potentially brilliant combination of Dwayne Roloson and Mat Garon. Young, hungry and competitive I like this team to make the playoffs on their live ice and potentially battle their way into the second round. While the time is nigh for a run, the Cup is moving in another direction in the Western conference almost as dangerous as Kandahar.

2008 Record: 41-35-6, 4th Northwest
'09 Projection: 42-30-10, 2nd NW

Vancouver Canucks
-- ask fired GM Dave Nonis how to waste the best goalie in the NHL and he'll direct you to Vancouver's roster. Purged from this years squad is the last semblance of success in Van City as Naslund and Morrison bolted to greener pastures. Notwithstanding their marginal impact on the new clubs, Trevor Linden's retirement leaves a massive leadership void (to go with -- regrettably -- similarly abysmal talent). Bearish is the feeling on the Canucks this year and you shouldn't be surprised. Their only meaningful additions were Steve Bernier (via trade), and Kyle Wellwood (via giveaway). Nucks suck this year, sorry to my West Coast brethren but your only hope is an MVP-Vezina season from Luongo.

2008 Record:39-33-10, 5th Northwest
'09 Projection: 38-34-10, 5th NW

NHL Futures, HNIC Song and Wild 3-Way's.

I've screwed the pooch like it was paying my bills of late, so I figured writing something -- regardless of the quality -- would be an invaluable exercise in blog-preservation. This time of year leaves many of my ilk jonesing for topics that don't include guys with initials B.F., the Yankees or Red Sox. So at the risk of owning a shitty and unkempt weblog, I'll rip one off for what feels like old time sake.

How about off-season NHL stuff? There is a rumor courtesy of the Ottawa Sun that is sure to keep the "ink-stained wretches" busy hacking away greedily. Since Ottawas' balance sheet has listed Gerber as a liability for nearly his full tenure with the team, it's not surprising they are looking to dump the underwhelming and inconsistent 'tender. However offering Andrej Meszaros to sweeten the pot gives the Sens a package that someone will inevitably see value in, which explains the willingness of the other two teams to get involved.

For the Kings to move Kopitar would take an exceedingly generous offer in the eyes of most, which is why this rumor draws skepticism. Is their value in moving their best young point-producer? Sure, but the return better include more than Gerber and Meszaros. Kopitar is a game-changer, an asset immeasurably valuable by traditional quantification. The aforementioned Sens are but cogs in the wheel of a solid, balanced NHL club, something that LA desperately needs after losing out on both Rob Blake (Sharks), and Brad Stuart (Wings). The previously-coachless Kings have significantly re-tooled in the off-season and appear poised to elevate themselves in the challenging Western conference. With their back to the wall, they seem willing to sacrifice some flash for functionality, a move that will doubtlessly frustrate Kings fans.

Remember the uproar when the Hockey Night in Canada theme song changed hands? I poo-pooed the loss then and have mounting evidence in favor of its insignificance. The song is associated with the game, not with a network or a program (which implicitly concedes that CBC may have lost out). The new HNIC song will have no bearing on viewership of CBC hockey broadcasts. Their relatively poor play-by-play, below-average camera angles and PJ Stock on the other hand will. TSN has been chipping away at CBC's lead in the quality standard department for some time, hence attention is due in areas vastly more significant than their anthem contest.

NHL Futures are up and everyone already knows the favourite. I see value in the Bruins, Blackhawks, Capitals and Flyers. Long shot on Columbus or St. Louis if you feel like gambling. Safe plays: New York Rangers v. Detroit Red Wings for Lord Stanley. Man up and post your call in the comment section: I dare you.

Thanks for reading and subscribe for the win, Cheers, Derek.

Best-Ever Tennis, Russian Cheerleaders and Brett Favre v. Mats Sundin

Sometimes its the little things in life that matter. Russian cheerleaders for example will bring a smile to your face. And when they happen to be brought to your attention on the same day as the greatest tennis match of all time, everything is coming up Milhouse.

Except if you're Brett Favre, who is more than obnoxious with his persistent desire to be important. We all may make decisions in life we regret, it is unfortunate in this instance that the very conundrum facing Favre is most frequently one which ends disastrously. Few things are as sure-to-disappoint as Pacman Jones or a new Will Ferrell movie, but a pro athlete set to come out of retirement rivals our most of epic letdowns. The numbers are not in Favres' favour if the Vikings think he'll be their saviour, and I think we'd all prefer if kept his musings to a simmer and made decisions behind closed doors like a grown up.

I am confident my neighbors in the US would rather watch the clinical removal of a hangnail than another sports-news clip featuring Brett Favre rumours. As a small consolation you can take solace knowing we have endured parallel suffrage in Toronto and -- although to a slightly lesser degree -- Canada. Mats Sundin is as enigmatic and annoying as the Old Boy Favre, but notably every bit as talented and potentially valuable. He's got offers from nearly a third of the league to join their club, with the Vancouver Canucks deeming a debatable top-15 player worthy of the largest contract in the league. He's not worth all that bread, but at the risk of wasting one of the best goalies in recent memory Vancouver is desperate to put a winning club in front of Roberto Luongo.

On a rather gossipy note, Kevin Lowe dropped a bomb on Brian Burke recently and I am thrilled. The saga is well documented. Who isn't interesting isn't piqued by the successive manifestations of two executives clashing through public channels? It is truly better than fiction. In The Ego and the Id (1923), Freud said, "...the ego uses borrowed forces" which fittingly meanders us to the root cause of this quarrel: Lowe broke the a gentleman's agreement in the NHL (by soliciting a restricted free agent on Burkes' team to a very generous offer sheet) effectively nailing the stones of the Ducks GM to the wall. Slighted and betrayed, Burke pushed back and the carousel thankfully continues. Sadly, their interpersonal spat doesn't go near the real problem: salary inflation in the NHL will eventually force the league into contraction (a tactic I've long been in support.) Much of what Burke preaches has merit, but the message is often muddled by his palpable infatuation with his own grandeur. This tabloid-like feud has guised the legitimate problems like salary inflation and the nature of RFA offer sheets (which do skew the market undesirably for the league and owners). Look forwards to more on this later, as it deserves it own piece.

Thanks for reading and support the site. Check out the Cloud9 Radio show tomorrow (Tues. Listen Live here) 6-9pm and subscribe to show some love. Cheers, Derek.

Counting Down the Sundin Saga: Make or Break for Mats. (w/ Chart)

It is with a substantial degree of reservation that I throw my hat into a ring whose floor is completely saturated with those of others also speculating on the future of Mats Sundin and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Fortunately for myself and my valued readership, I am much smarter than most of my colleagues, hence the necessity of my commentary on this burning issue.

That being said, I always strive to differentiate myself from the pack. Here, via a chart , is a slightly innovative way to dissect the current speculation regarding Mats Sundin and a variety of NHL clubs. Besides, doesn't reading a chart make you feel smarter and more efficient regardless? Well it should, so check this out:



Looks far more concise when framed in that manner, doesn't it? It also leaves plenty of room for explanation as well.

Please note that players named are listed as BEST-case, and under no circumstances will these players be easily acquired. It is Cliff Fletchers' job to suss out deals of this magnitude, thus we are required to consider the names mentioned.

Secondly, it is very obvious that draft picks often shape these deals. They are therefore impossible to speculate on since they are commonly used by GM's to find a common ground in the negotiation(s). Speculating on where the picks will fall is determined once the players are settled, and since we are not privy to this knowledge I didn't waste time analyzing potential draft picks. Furthermore, it is my belief that Cliff is looking for young players who currently offer NHL-level talent in addition to star potential moving forward, with draft picks being a very close secondary priority.

Lastly, the comments in the “Would Cliff Pull the Trigger?” column are terse for the purposes of space. Each one has been expanded on in great detail in several of my previous podcasts and articles that can be found here and here.

Those with a keen arithmetic sense will also note the likelihood percentages sum to 100. Yes, I think there is 0% chance Mats will stay a Toronto Maple Leaf. Surprised?

Comments and thoughts are more than welcome. Thanks for reading – Derek.