NHL Western Preview [Podcast]

Everything. Division breakdown, final points standings. Hint: The Kings are brutal and the Red Wings look good... Listen at your own risk:



Thanks for listening, more to come next week. -- Derek

7 Habits of Highly Effective NHL Forecasting: Part V

Western Pacific Division: Another powerhouse that with certainty will rival their Eastern Atlantic foes in terms of overall calibre of play. The Ducks, Stars, Kings, Coyotes and Sharks will have some epic battles which won't stop in the regular season. Read on below to find out who is best positioned to stand atop the rest.

Anaheim Mighty Ducks
-- Oh, how the Mighty are fallin'... OK, not the most original way to kick off the 5th installment of this series, but when the cliche fits use it. Age and experience are normally an asset in professional sports and few teams have rode this to success like the Ducks in the past few seasons. We have now reached, in my humble, er... usually correct opinion, the point of diminishing returns for these Ducks. The cap is Brian Burkes' enemy (presently a few million over) which has left some vets on the outside looking in (Selanne and Schneider). Mediocre UFA signing Brendan Morrison will join returning forwards (Perry, Getzlaf, Kunitz) and disappointing '05 2nd overall Bobby Ryan with the hopes of this years squad resting on their shoulders. Looking at their last 3 seasons (lost Western Final, Won Stanley Cup, lost Western QF's) leads me to believe they are trending downward. Pronger and company on the back end will ensure strong numbers for Giguère and the squad on the whole, but I don't expect them to factor into the Western Final as many odds makers insist.

2008 Record: 47-27-8, 2nd Pacific
'09 Prediction: 44-30-8, 3rd Pacific

Dallas Stars
-- three words describe the teams who I think will win their respective conferences: depth at center. The Flyers, found here, are second up the middle to only the Stars who will ice Ribeiro, Richards, Modano and Lunqvist/Ott. Accompanying them upfront are three reliable plus-performers (Morrow, Avery, Lehtinen) creating an offensive cast considered the cats ass by most. Defensively, health is paramount with Zubov's ability to play in 70+ games and a full post-season likely determining how far they can make it. Oh, that dude between the pipes (Marty Turco) will continue to do his thing: stop 92% of the pucks thrown at him, dominate in the clutch and lead them to the Western Conference title.

2008 Record: 45-30-7, 3rd Pacific
'09 Prediction: 48-26-8, 1st Pacific

Phoenix Coyotes
-- Got better, but the magnitude of their improvements is the problem. Adding Olli Jokinen came at a cost to their defense (as Phoenix fans will happily tell you), but they finally have a center to play big time minutes against the pseudo-human, nuclear-powered refrigerators (Thornton, Morrow, Kopitar, Getzlaf) opposing them in their division. Their storyline will be dominated by contrast: will the performance of their young stars (Turris, Mueller, Carcillo, 1st rounder Mikkal Boedker) match that of their vets (Doan and Jovanovski). If they can align themselves and play at a high level, Ilya Bryzgalov will ensure they improve on their showing last season. Playoffs are doubtful, but they will be under-estimated around every turn and eager to prove people wrong.

2008 Record: 38-37-7, 4th Pacific
'09 Prediction: 39-33-10, 4th Pacific

Los Angeles Kings
-- I don't care enough to crunch the numbers, but they are probably the youngest team in the league. Notwithstanding the fact that half of the team won't be able to drink in the States with the rest of the US Americans





, they have some serious fire-power in their returning forwards (Kopitar, O'Sullivan, Brown and Frolov) who were responsible for 119 goals last season. Defensively they anticipate more growth from Jack Johnson, Tom Hickey and 1st rounder Drew Doughty. The crease will be occupied by whomever emerges from the revolving door of prospects (Jon Bernier, Ersberg, and LaBarbara). They miss the playoffs but add some well-needed seasoning to their young core.

2008 Record: 32-43-7, 5th Pacific
'09 Prediction: 33-40-9, 5th Pacific

San Jose Sharks
-- leave it to the Eastern media to ignore a team from Southern California that almost won 50 games last year and amassed 43 or more wins in the last 4 seasons. Surprised they've been that good for so long? (Ask Ron Wilson how he feels about getting canned after winning 177 contests in 4 years). Will the coaching change bring some more post-season success? Probably not, so what is holding them back? Their blue line shouldn't be an issue after adding Dan Boyle to replace the departed UFA Brian Campbell, and Rob Blake who will ease the pain of losing Rivet to Buffalo. It's not the goaltending, as Nabokov is one of the best and has been since the turn of the century. It shouldn't be the offense as they have 5 returning forwards with 19+ goals last season (plus the 10GWG-scoring Jeremy Roenick). The source of their troubles is allusive, clearly. Its as mysterious as a ghost shit, so don't ask me to find it. They can win it all, but I can't possibly pick them to do it after burning me time and again.

2008 Record: 49-23-10, 1st Pacific
'09 Prediction: 46-27-9, 2nd Pacific

Embracing the Human Element in Officiating

It's just too easy to rip sporting officials sometimes. We've always been taught otherwise, but when you're right your right, and when you're wrong... you're allowing goals to pass through the side of the net.

In yesterdays IIHF World Championship contest between Finland and the US, the latter finagled their way back into the game with a slippery snipe that clearly went through the side of the net. A queer feeling gripped the arena promoting the on-ice ref's to confer the with officials upstairs in hopes their use of video review could indefinitely solve the dilemma. So does the puck go through the side of the net? (Here is the video with added value in form of dirty Finnish commentary).

It could be the work of match-rigging henchmen, pure accidental negligence, or another case of the Newfies in the video review booth getting too ripped to decipher the coded message that you just watched – stranger (alcohol-related) things have happened in Halifax, trust me. Whatever the explanation, the result was an unprecedented blunder which allowed the Finnish squad to squeak out a 3-2 win.

We accept that humans are prone to error because we experience these mishaps daily. We've been in fender benders, mis-pronounced peoples names, or gotten poop on our hands during a rushed, errant wipe. Shit happens, indeed. And lighting can strike twice...

Case in Point. This image was taken during the first period of Game 2, when Sidney Crosby was hacking away at a lose puck at the side of the net. The end-result is clearly displayed – but the humans responsible for the outcome of this event once again made a mistake. Following a lengthy review, the inconclusive visual confirmation took a goal away from the Pittsburgh Penguins.

What is most frustrating is not the mistake itself, but the dogmatic adherence to a rule that offers no flexibility. Sports organizations and the NHL always pride itself on the quality of their officials and support any instances of bad officiating with the classic “we embrace the human element” mantra. Where the hell was the human element lastnight? Watching the replay determines pretty clearly that the puck crossed the goal line, as its momentum continued once Marty Biron smothered it with his glove (obstructing the visual proof of the puck crossing the line). In lieu of making the appropriate assessment, the NHL chose loyalty to a fault and threw the rule book at Michel Therrien and the Pens. No Goal!

Poll coaches, players and general managers on the most important quality of officials and they would overwhelming respond: consistency. Good, bad or otherwise, just be consistent so we (the players) know the guidelines. Embracing the human element whenever possible and these events become easily avoidable.

This unfortunate example caught the league talking out of both sides of their mouth, a phenomena of which the fans have grown tired. Are we in for the human element or not? I support intelligent people passing reasonable judgments – which why if you hire the right people for the job, these problems disappear. This applied to the Zamboni drivers, video review judges and beyond – up to the suits in New York and Mr. Bettman for his lack of confidence in the people who work for him. Pick a philosophy and follow it to the end, just ensure they don't cross paths during another NHL playoff semi-final or World Championship Game.

Weekly Wed. All-NHL Podcast #13

The Conference Finals start tomorrow, and here is everything you need to know in easy-listening form. [Runs 21mins.]

Topics:

• The Dumpster Fire Report: Leafs fire lame duck coach. So what???
• From the Crapper to the Cup? Can Philly take down the Penguins in the East Conf. Final?
• Detty Does Dallas? Either way, the battle between the Stars and the Wings will result in somebody getting screwed.
  

Enjoy and Thank you for Listening! -- Cheers, Derek.