7 Habits of Highly Effective NHL Forecasting: Part III

You can check out Part I, and Part II at their respective locations.

The Dirty South East:
This division is full of teams that I would like to see out of the NHL entirely, as I've documented previously. Their shitty revenue kills their operating budget erasing any chance of being competitive on a consistent basis (see Cups to the can for Tampa (2004) and Carolina (2006)). Hope is limited to those teams fortunate enough to draft Alex Ovechkin:

Washington Capitals
-- We'd all be more excited if Christobal Huet hadn't bolted for Chicago. This move opened the door for Jose Theodore, whose decent career numbers mask his failure to live up to the standards he sat 4-6 years ago (which assuredly erodes his confidence and fosters his inconsistency). I'm not holding my breath for a return to form, but the AO-led '08 Caps showed their offensive abilities are strong enough to compensate for average netminding. Defenseman Karl Alzner will get a sniff of the big dance potentially alongside the surprisingly-productive Tom Poti. They are joined on the blue line by a formidable contingent of young potential All Stars (Green, Morrisonn). Playing with Ovechkin will help stud-'08-rookie Nik Backstrom avoid a sophomore slump in the same way another years' experience should facilitate improvement in their secondary scoring (courtesy of Semin, Kozlov and Fleishmann). They were narrowly clipped by the Flyers ending their Cinderella playoff run in '08 adding fuel to the competitive fire that should keep them climbing the rankings in the East.

2008 Record: 43-31-8, 1st Southeast
'09 Projection: 45-27-10, 1st Southeast

Tampa Bay Lightning
-- had a massive off-season. Their completely over-hauled roster was the mandate of new ownership (Oren Koules and Len Barrie). Accordingly, the Bolts' new coach (ex-WWL analyst 10-years removed from his last coaching stint, Barry 'The Mullet' Melrose) will put together the jigsaw of a line-up stocked with players also well removed from their old glory. Tampas' opening day lines will display some permutation of the following: forwards (Ryan Malone, Adam Hall, Gary Roberts, Mark Recchi, Radim Vrbata and the reacquired Vinny Prospal -- Jesus himself is reportedly at training camp with a shot a 4th line role), and defensive addition (Matt Carle) who'll have the impossible task of replicating the puck-moving ability of departed PP QB Dan Boyle (to San Jose). True to their reinvented form, the goaltenders (deadline acquisition Mike Smith, and free agent Olly Kolzig) are unaware of their place on the team. I expect 50 starts for the much younger Smith, and the Lightning hope he'll outplay Kolzig keeping him humble in the back-up role. Lofty contributions are also expected from seenstamkos.com star Steven, riding his 1st Overall selection to a shot at centering the second line behind venerable offensive contributors Marty St. Louis and Vinny Lecav, who will lead this motley cast in concert with shoot-out machine Jussi Jokinen. If they find the chemistry and stay healthy I'd anticipate a last-minute scrap for a playoff position. Otherwise, lets chalk their frantic roster shuffling and continued stagnation up to growing pains.

2008 Record: 31-42-9, 5th Southeast
'09 Projection: 37-33-12, 3rd Southeast

Carolina Hurricanes
-- With a dearth of offensive D-men GM Jim Rutherford wisely exchanged fan-favourite Eric Cole for Joni Pitkanen; a deal that met the ire of fans whose love for the name and his story obstructed their managerial-assessment capabilities. Carolina is stocked with talented forwards (Staal, Whitney, Brind'Amour, Walker, LaRose) who put up tallies on a per-game basis at elite levels on balance. With the mobile Pitkanen anchoring their PP, I like Carlina to sneak into the tournament as a 6-8 seed in the East. Cam Ward is older, more mature and has steadily posted better numbers. Contingent on Wards progression, the 'Canes success will hinge on their health (which has shattered Carolinas' potential in recent years) and the consistency of Eric Staal (whose ability to take over games and provide a compliment to the fine leadership of the ageless Rod-the-Bod Brind'Amour will be vital).

2008 Record: 43-33-6, 2nd Southeast
'09 Projection: 42-31-9, 2nd Southeast

Florida Panthers
-- This franchise is a joke. They gave away Robbie Luongo a few seasons ago, swapped their best skater (Olli Jokinen) for two non-impact players (Nick Boyton and Keith Ballard), and have their best defensemen desperately seeking employment elsewhere (see Bouwmeesters' arbitration issue and subsequent 1-year deal). Corey Stillman is in, but too old to be a saviour and goaltender Tomas Vokoun can only make so many saves. They miss the playoffs -- again -- and hopefully re-locate to Southern Ontario.

2008 Record: 38-35-9, 3rd Southeast
'09 Projection: 34-37-11, 4th Southeast

Atlanta Thrashers
-- I'd like to avoid an entry for them altogether, but since the development of these OCD-like symptoms that make incompletion more annoying than a hockey team in Atlanta, I'll highlight the one reason you might care about the Thrashers: Ilya Kovalchuk. Teams know that ATL couldn't compete in the AHL, let alone the 'N', so they slack off and beat them 6-3, 5-4, 7-4, etc. But who's racking up all those snipes in a losing cause? Mr. Kovalchuk. If the impending captaincy motivates him sufficiently he could make another legit run at the Rocket Richard. There: some hope for Thrashers fans...

2008 Record: 34-40-8, 4th Southeast
'09 Projection: 33-39-10, 5th Southeast

Thanks for reading. Also, subscribing is a great idea as the NFL/NHL seasons are fast approaching. Cheers, Derek.

The 7 Habits of Highly Effective NHL Forecasting

Thanks for checking out the site. You can also find me on the radio tonight (Tuesdays, 6-9pm) 101.5Fm or streaming online here. Cheers, Derek.
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Predicting the future is a challenging business. It is governed by many of the same factors that determine the outcome of our own life: hard work and dedication (collecting data and information on every team), confidence and trust (avoiding over-thinking and believing your gut), ability and aptitude (how well do you actually know the game?) and pure luck (see: rectally-lodged horseshoes, leprechauns, David Spade and Heather Locklear). With that in mind, I submit to the public record my projections for the 2008-2009 NHL season, starting with (arguably) the best division in hockey: East Atlantic.

New York Rangers
-- Gone from the roster are Straka, Avery and Jagr (and with passing days, it looks like Shanny as well). Signed to fill the holes are the vapid and diminishing talents of free agents Wade Redden and Marcus Naslund. That pretty much puts their off-season in the loss column, but Glen Sather would tell you otherwise. He moved two former early round picks (Backman and Tyutin) to acquire enigmatic Nikolai Zherdev, and Dan Fritsche. The latter will learn from and play much like stalwart Chris Drury, whereas Zherdev will try and fill the flashy neon shoes of Jagr. Returning contributors will keep the Rangers competitive in the East: Lunqvist and Gomez are both All Star and near the peak of their career, while Dubinsky and Marc Staal continue to mature into solid top-line players.

2008 Record: 42-27-13, 3rd Atlantic
Projected '09: 40-30-12, 3nd Atlantic

Pittsburgh Penguins
-- At short odds to win it all, most will put them in the Cup Final again -- not me. Pittsburgh brilliantly executed their plan to build a team capable of winning the Cup last year, but Detroit proved they did a better job. The Pens revealed their urgency by surprisingly acquiring Marion Hossa, who ironically left a cloud of smoke when he bolted to the aforementioned Red Wings. Unfortunately their taste of success was succeeded by changes on mass. Lost are Hossa, Malone, Roberts, Ruutu and Laraque (and now Ryan Whitney to injury for 5month) meaning their 2009 opening day roster could have 7-10 new names on it. If goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury can back up his excellent performance last year, Crosby and Malkin will make sure enough pucks get buried on the other side to keep them in the playoff hunt, quite possibly with home-ice advantage based on their savage level of raw talent.

2008 Record: 47-27-8, 1st Atlantic
Projected '09: 42-29-11, 2rd Atlantic

New Jersey Devils
-- They can be summed up perfectly by a quote from GM Lou Lamoriello:
" People forget—we had 99 points and were in first place 60, 70 percent of the year. We've added two players in Bobby Holik and Brian Rolston, and certainly we're looking for a defenseman or two to come in and play—or push somebody—and we'll see what happens from there."

Who would have thought the brilliant architect of the Devils near-dynasty would have such a good sound bite in him? Thanks Lou, if only you were smart enough to create a winner that was also exciting to watch, we'd care more about your club and less about you (hmm, maybe its deliberate...). Any how, I've been waiting for Marty Brodeur to slide, and he's proven me wrong two years running. Call me stubborn, but age catches everyone and Brodeur is human, right? They'll ride him all year and I wouldn't be surprised if an injury was to blame for their below average performance. That notwithstanding Parise, Elias, Rolston, and the same crew of role players that seemingly over-achieve annually means this division will ice yet another playoff contender.

2008 Record: 46-29-7, 2nd Atlantic
Projected '09: 41-33-8, 4th Atlantic

New York Islanders
-- Brutal. This is a definite re-build year for the Islanders and I have little interest detailing their inevitable ass-raping courtesy of their divisional rivals. On the flip side, they could be celebrating the first-overall pick at the draft lottery in the summer!

2008 Record: 35-38-9, 5th Atlantic
Projected '09: 32-41-9, 5th Atlantic

Philadelphia Flyers
-- Lost Umberger, but gained Simon Gagne back from a year of concussion rehab and an off-season of strength and conditioning. Having scored 40+ twice, the Flyers fans are desperate to keep him healthy and productive on a strong team that has all the tools to make some noise in the Eastern conference. They are extremely deep up the middle (Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Daniel Briere) and compliment it well with defenders (Timonen, Coburn, Jones) that can move the puck and contribute at both ends of the rink. Marty Biron was in his prime last season (30-20-9, .918SV%, 2.59GGA, 5SO) which means this young team has a lethal make-up: confidence, talent, motivation. I think they surprise a lot of people and win this division, and maybe get to the Finals if they're healthy.

2008 Record: 42-29-11, 4th Atlantic
Projected '09: 47-25-10, 1th Atlantic

For the next installment check back in a few days, or toss my site into your RSS catalog and let the computer do the work for you!

Dealing with Crooks is Gary Bettmans' Fatal Blunder!

Well, it appears the perfect image from melroserocks blog has been eaten by the internet. What a shame, thankfully here's an equally compromising shot. ---------->

It's tough to fire people for being stupid, because doing so implies the error was that of the hiring agent and not the discarded individual themselves. However, firing someone for being dishonest and subverted is contrarily fun and easy. Assholes that are ignorant (or arrogant) enough to lie and deceive others deserve the guillotine when they get burned for their covert practices. Why the tirade in light of my ongoing pursuit of positivity?

Bad judgement is like a disease, I believe this axiomatic. That Bettman has failed in numerous respects as a commissioner of the NHL is unto itself lacking the fatal qualities of his most recently publicized decisions. Because Gary Bettman, the lawyer, ex-NBA official, rat-lookalike, general douche bag and current NHL commissioner has finally made a critical error inspiring the venom spewed above. Others have taken him to task for his part in the back-door non-sense that awarded yet another unfit investor an NHL franchise, but I feel responsible for ensuring this is his last mistake.

Perhaps the firing squad has finished their inexhaustible supply of cigarettes and liquor. Perhaps now they can draw up their guns and inoculate the NHL of its most crippling and virulent problem: its leadership. Gary has made but 30 friends during his tenure in the league: The 30 owners who have reaped windfall profits while the fans have suffered bad TV deals, poor coverage on major networks, rising ticket prices (associated with non-NHL-related cost of living increases) and a slue of inconveniences analogous to being given the short-end of the stick (or taking a fisting for those under 35). Enraged, but powerless the fans have persevered while the owners remain gleaming like silver, safe and proud above the hot struggles of the poor.

I am hopeful this incident will incite action among those of sound morality and adequate influence. I am hopeful change will fix the NHL. I am realistic and disheartened by its unlikelihood. "I was within and without, simultaneously enchanted and repeled by the inexhaustible variety of life."

Cheers and thanks for reading. Come back soon. Subscribing helps... Check out the radio show tomorrow night (Tues 6-9pm, 101.5FM or live online).

Oprah tells NHL: Hire good people, be successful like me.

Oprah is a ludicrously successful person, but she didn't say that about hockey. /shock/ I think she might know it exists though. Regardless, this is how your NHL team can find success just like O.

This is an interesting time of the year for the NHL in which something incalculably vital to organizational success is going on under the guise of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. This determinant of success is in reference to the host of managerial and coaching contracts being discussed and subsequently signed over the last few weeks.

The invaluable role that coaches and managers play in team success can too easily be overlooked. These types of decisions which influence your on-ice product so tangibly are becoming of increasing importance in an NHL rich with parity. Your teams' path is laid for the future through the executive restructuring ongoing throughout the Spring months currently upon us. How important are the decisions your team is making right now? Very.

In any walk of like, often people of superior talent and intelligence rise to the top – this is why the smartest guys on Wall St. are hedge fund managers, why infomercials feature the same people repeatedly, and of course, why Crosby, Zetterberg, Malkin and Datsuk are so much better than their peers (but, thats another topic altogether). This excruciating analogy speak to the collective desperation in which teams – from all sports leagues -- explore the Saharan pool of available world-class management.

Naturally, the off-season is a happy place where teams dream of a bright future often overlooking the 50% chance they have of finishing in bottom half of the standings. The rampant delusions around this time of year lends itself to the symbiotic shuffling of management and coaching. So you pull the plug on the old hack(s) and bring in the new miracle worker. Funny thing about that though....

There aren't many miracle makers in the business of orchestrating winning sports franchises. All the guys old enough to recall a legacy worth remembering are dating themselves back to the Battle of Queenston Heights (alright, maybe just back to hippies). My point remains: the value of good management is priceless.

Take a quick look over the dog-and-pony show that is the Maple Leafs GM search and you'll have to look no further. The media has obsessed endlessly because it so important to them! Just picture Trader Cliff on the blood pressure monitor 24/7 as he endlessly searches for an adequate solution. Other teams has since resolved their vacancies however, with Dallas, Colorado and Vancouver all putting the pieces in place recently in preparation for the draft.

The Stars locked up the incumbent Brett Hull and Les Jackson by ceremoniously removing their Interm tag, Colorado decided to go back to Tony Granato (who was the bench general from 2002-04), and Vancouver told coach Alain Vigneault that he can wait another year to be a lame duck. (I guess Van City GM Mike Gillis is the old ball breaker hes made out to be.)

Lest we forget the lengths that people and organizations go to in an effort to retain good talent. Several have gone so far as to deny the right to negotiate with an individual under contract (even if, contrary to the customary practice, that job was a promotion).

This is a ruthless business where cash-cow markets can take advantage of their dough simply because there are no salary limitations within the managerial ranks. It encourages the thought: Why are managers and coaches making Darren McCarty-type money, when sane rationality dictates they should be living like Crosby? Eventually, it will come to this, or market principles tell us it should. There will be a great deal of resistance from some owners, but over the course of time their dollar will get stretched by fielding poor teams manifest through poor decision-making executives. In time, it will force these owners to make it rain on someone capable of winning.

How can one deem a GM capable of delivering victories? I'm a strong believer in established team identity as a predictive measure of success (in all sports). Managing means developing this identity and exemplifying it on the ice with the players of the ilk required. It's like seasoning the perfect bone-in Rib Eye streak, or playing jenga – its all about balance and timing. Its about managing the right ingredients to fit the mold you deem most likely to produce championships. But, its not easy...

This is evident around this time of year when we see and hear all of the organizational restructuring (as the GM-types might say it) around the league. It reminds you how exposed and vulnerable they are in a position that always demands success – not merely from the fraternity of their peers, but the ravaging fanatics who pay their salary with ever ticket. Being a GM or a coach is all about risk-reward: thankfully for them, those who succeed are being increasingly compensated for their work. This is a trend, unlike the men themselves, with a termination date far out of sight.

Weekly Wed. All-NHL Podcast #14

Good Afternoon Sarah Shahi. ===>>>>>


Enjoy this weeks musings on all things related to the NHL [Runs 20min].

Topics include:

• Is the Glow Puck is BAAACK? Clearly there are better ways to pimp the NHL, but is this, and focusing on Sidney Crosby all part of the problem and not the solution?
• More vacancies than Detroit Motels: Who will be coaching your team next season?
  
• The Tombstone Reads: Bye-Bye Philly and Dallas. Listen to why they will be golfing in a New York minute, and look forward to a final we've seen before (think NY Islanders dynasty beating the up-and-coming Edmonton Oilers in the 82-83 Final).

Cheers and thank for listening -- Derek.

"Because Linkfarms generate traffic...

& honesty is the best policy!" - Moms.

To start: a photo of the woman I'd most like to punch in the face if I were a female =====>

Hockey:

• A detailed chart showing games played for Stanley Cup Finalists over the past decade+.
• Some good points regarding the next GM of the Toronto Makeme Laffs.
  

Baseball:

• Enjoy a look back at some of the best Pitching Seasons of All Time.
• Moneyball: Does it pay to pay up in the MLB? (Sick Interactive graph)
• Lists are underrated: 12 Things Baseball should bring back.

Insanity:

• Remember Boating and Alcohol is fun, but potentially dangerous. Ex. Speed Boat docks on the wrong beach -- next to the 6th Green.
  
• As much as corporate filth like this should anger you, this stuff is pretty funny.
• Batshit Bill O'Reilly goes off in the day.

Hotness:

• Megan Fox Topless, but covered... Intriguing, I know...

NFL/NBA:

• Best In-Game Dunks of the '07-'08 season: This is the only form of NBA I can tolerate.
• Marvin Harrison: Mild-mannered Colts receiver has a very interesting story -- and potentially a addition to his wrap sheet.
  

Embracing the Human Element in Officiating

It's just too easy to rip sporting officials sometimes. We've always been taught otherwise, but when you're right your right, and when you're wrong... you're allowing goals to pass through the side of the net.

In yesterdays IIHF World Championship contest between Finland and the US, the latter finagled their way back into the game with a slippery snipe that clearly went through the side of the net. A queer feeling gripped the arena promoting the on-ice ref's to confer the with officials upstairs in hopes their use of video review could indefinitely solve the dilemma. So does the puck go through the side of the net? (Here is the video with added value in form of dirty Finnish commentary).

It could be the work of match-rigging henchmen, pure accidental negligence, or another case of the Newfies in the video review booth getting too ripped to decipher the coded message that you just watched – stranger (alcohol-related) things have happened in Halifax, trust me. Whatever the explanation, the result was an unprecedented blunder which allowed the Finnish squad to squeak out a 3-2 win.

We accept that humans are prone to error because we experience these mishaps daily. We've been in fender benders, mis-pronounced peoples names, or gotten poop on our hands during a rushed, errant wipe. Shit happens, indeed. And lighting can strike twice...

Case in Point. This image was taken during the first period of Game 2, when Sidney Crosby was hacking away at a lose puck at the side of the net. The end-result is clearly displayed – but the humans responsible for the outcome of this event once again made a mistake. Following a lengthy review, the inconclusive visual confirmation took a goal away from the Pittsburgh Penguins.

What is most frustrating is not the mistake itself, but the dogmatic adherence to a rule that offers no flexibility. Sports organizations and the NHL always pride itself on the quality of their officials and support any instances of bad officiating with the classic “we embrace the human element” mantra. Where the hell was the human element lastnight? Watching the replay determines pretty clearly that the puck crossed the goal line, as its momentum continued once Marty Biron smothered it with his glove (obstructing the visual proof of the puck crossing the line). In lieu of making the appropriate assessment, the NHL chose loyalty to a fault and threw the rule book at Michel Therrien and the Pens. No Goal!

Poll coaches, players and general managers on the most important quality of officials and they would overwhelming respond: consistency. Good, bad or otherwise, just be consistent so we (the players) know the guidelines. Embracing the human element whenever possible and these events become easily avoidable.

This unfortunate example caught the league talking out of both sides of their mouth, a phenomena of which the fans have grown tired. Are we in for the human element or not? I support intelligent people passing reasonable judgments – which why if you hire the right people for the job, these problems disappear. This applied to the Zamboni drivers, video review judges and beyond – up to the suits in New York and Mr. Bettman for his lack of confidence in the people who work for him. Pick a philosophy and follow it to the end, just ensure they don't cross paths during another NHL playoff semi-final or World Championship Game.

Weekly Wed. All-NHL Podcast #13

The Conference Finals start tomorrow, and here is everything you need to know in easy-listening form. [Runs 21mins.]

Topics:

• The Dumpster Fire Report: Leafs fire lame duck coach. So what???
• From the Crapper to the Cup? Can Philly take down the Penguins in the East Conf. Final?
• Detty Does Dallas? Either way, the battle between the Stars and the Wings will result in somebody getting screwed.
  

Enjoy and Thank you for Listening! -- Cheers, Derek.