7 Habits of Highly Effective NHL Forecasting: Part IV

To open the Western Conference, I honour the champions from last season: The CENTRAL DIVISION. ---------------------------------


Detroit Red Wings:
What is there to say? They have been lauded endlessly since destroying the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup final, lost no one of significance and gained Marion Hossa: they took a great thing and made it better (like undressing the Mona Lisa, or loading beer and strippers onto Noahs Ark). The only reasonable assumption is that they will be on par with their achievements last year -- a championship standard that is difficult to live up to. With a target squarely on their already-battled-worn backs I would not be surprised to see the injury bug sweep through the team. The subjective nature of that aside, Zetterberg, Datsuk, Hossa, Holmstrom, Frazen, Lidstrom, Rafalski and insert All Star here will make others look stupid on-the-regular throughout the season and well into the playoffs. Repeat? Ask me when they get to the dance.

2008 Record: 54-21-7, 1st Central
'09 Projection: 49-25-8, 1st Central

Chicago Blackhawks:
-- are the sweet heart team in the Western Conference this year. Look for them to sweep hockey fans off of their feet (straight onto the band wagon) much the same way Washington did last season, minus the AO-like dominance from their young snipers. Kane, Toews and Sharp carried the offense last year on a Blackhawks team that missed the playoffs by a slim margin (which may be accounted for by exuberant rookies playing too hungover on the road, something veteran piss-tank Robert Lang surely advised them on in the off-season). They added free-agent Brian Campbell to an already stacked offensively-adept blue line (Keith, Seabrook). Apparently trending upwards and due for a playoff appearance there remains some problems capable of grounding their expectations: Will Pat Sharp back up his shockingly productive season of '08 similarly in '09? How will they get rid of Knabiboulin and his 6.75mil contract so that newly-signed free-agent Christobal Huet can call the team his own? Whether or not they materialize into a threat this season is debatable, but their future is very positive as indicated by the willingness of Scotty Bowman to leave Detriot for Chi Town. This is a playoff team, but they need to iron out a few things before they can win it all.

2008 Record: 40-34-8, 2nd Central
'09 Projection: 42-30-10, 2nd Central


Nashville Predators
-- should prepare themselves to be usurped by Chicago as the 2nd-best team in the Detriot-dominated division. While they're at it, might as well err on the side of caution and be ready for numerous Western conference teams to fly past them having made zero notable moves in the off-season. Naturally I know headlines are not correlated to performance, but an offense with the punch of a Jaleel White circa 1995 is. With 2/3's of their second line doubtful (Alex Radulov set to play in Russia, Steve Sullivan's back doesn't work anymore) the Pred's need Arnott, Dumont, Erat and Legwand to produce over what most reasonable prognosticators will expect. Their saving grace will be their strong defense (Suter, Hamhuis, Weber) which will regrettably be without offensively-gifted Martin Zidlicky (gone to Minnesota). In support of their admirable cast of blue-liners is emerging goaltending star Dan Ellis (fantasy alert?). He was stellar during both the regular season (23-10-3, 6SO, 2.34GAA, .924%) and the playoffs (.938% over 6 games). Should he continue to demonstrate this type of consistency and reliability Nashville will be sniffing around the bottom of the playoff rankings in lieu of spiralling down the shit can.

2008 Record: 41-32-9, 2nd Central
'09 Projection: 39-34-9 3rd Central


Columbus Blue Jackets
-- are not only competing for their first-ever playoff appearance in '09, but are also in contention for the most numerous roster changes. They finally said goodbye to frustrating forward Nik Zherdev (who as an aside is still held in high regard by Doug MacLean. It's hard for your draft picks to live up to Gretzky when they play like Valari Bure, Dougie. Welcome to radio). Also wearing other threads are Hainsey, Brule and Dan Fritsche all of whom will contribute on their new clubs, albeit to varying degrees with Hainsey purportedly the most promising for the otherwise burning-tires-and-skunks-awful Atlanta Thrashers. Their top line is respectable (Nash - Umberger - Huselius), but everything between them and goaltender Pascal Leclaire is unimpressive. With Raffi Torres on the second line, Mike Commodore playing top 2 minutes its looks like the Battle of Fallen Timbers all over again.

2008 Record: 34-36-12, 4th Central
'09 Projection: 36-34-12, 4th Central


St. Louis Blues
-- John Davidson is viewed as a miracle worker by some given the resurgence of the team during his tenure (est. June 2006). However, their on-ice successes have much more to do with the brilliance of Brad Boyes and his 43-gino career-year. His partner-in-crime is sneaky point-producer Andy MacDonald who shares his habit of making plays and setting up tap-ins with their aging linemate (Paul 'if only prime wasn't so far away' Kariya). This will be another rung up the rebuilding latter for the hockey team in Mizzou, so we might get to see a lot of promising young talent, but only for 82 games or less.

2008 Record: 33-36-13, 5th Central
'09 Projection: 35-35-12, 5th Central

The 7 Habits of Highly Effective NHL Forecasting

Thanks for checking out the site. You can also find me on the radio tonight (Tuesdays, 6-9pm) 101.5Fm or streaming online here. Cheers, Derek.
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Predicting the future is a challenging business. It is governed by many of the same factors that determine the outcome of our own life: hard work and dedication (collecting data and information on every team), confidence and trust (avoiding over-thinking and believing your gut), ability and aptitude (how well do you actually know the game?) and pure luck (see: rectally-lodged horseshoes, leprechauns, David Spade and Heather Locklear). With that in mind, I submit to the public record my projections for the 2008-2009 NHL season, starting with (arguably) the best division in hockey: East Atlantic.

New York Rangers
-- Gone from the roster are Straka, Avery and Jagr (and with passing days, it looks like Shanny as well). Signed to fill the holes are the vapid and diminishing talents of free agents Wade Redden and Marcus Naslund. That pretty much puts their off-season in the loss column, but Glen Sather would tell you otherwise. He moved two former early round picks (Backman and Tyutin) to acquire enigmatic Nikolai Zherdev, and Dan Fritsche. The latter will learn from and play much like stalwart Chris Drury, whereas Zherdev will try and fill the flashy neon shoes of Jagr. Returning contributors will keep the Rangers competitive in the East: Lunqvist and Gomez are both All Star and near the peak of their career, while Dubinsky and Marc Staal continue to mature into solid top-line players.

2008 Record: 42-27-13, 3rd Atlantic
Projected '09: 40-30-12, 3nd Atlantic

Pittsburgh Penguins
-- At short odds to win it all, most will put them in the Cup Final again -- not me. Pittsburgh brilliantly executed their plan to build a team capable of winning the Cup last year, but Detroit proved they did a better job. The Pens revealed their urgency by surprisingly acquiring Marion Hossa, who ironically left a cloud of smoke when he bolted to the aforementioned Red Wings. Unfortunately their taste of success was succeeded by changes on mass. Lost are Hossa, Malone, Roberts, Ruutu and Laraque (and now Ryan Whitney to injury for 5month) meaning their 2009 opening day roster could have 7-10 new names on it. If goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury can back up his excellent performance last year, Crosby and Malkin will make sure enough pucks get buried on the other side to keep them in the playoff hunt, quite possibly with home-ice advantage based on their savage level of raw talent.

2008 Record: 47-27-8, 1st Atlantic
Projected '09: 42-29-11, 2rd Atlantic

New Jersey Devils
-- They can be summed up perfectly by a quote from GM Lou Lamoriello:
" People forget—we had 99 points and were in first place 60, 70 percent of the year. We've added two players in Bobby Holik and Brian Rolston, and certainly we're looking for a defenseman or two to come in and play—or push somebody—and we'll see what happens from there."

Who would have thought the brilliant architect of the Devils near-dynasty would have such a good sound bite in him? Thanks Lou, if only you were smart enough to create a winner that was also exciting to watch, we'd care more about your club and less about you (hmm, maybe its deliberate...). Any how, I've been waiting for Marty Brodeur to slide, and he's proven me wrong two years running. Call me stubborn, but age catches everyone and Brodeur is human, right? They'll ride him all year and I wouldn't be surprised if an injury was to blame for their below average performance. That notwithstanding Parise, Elias, Rolston, and the same crew of role players that seemingly over-achieve annually means this division will ice yet another playoff contender.

2008 Record: 46-29-7, 2nd Atlantic
Projected '09: 41-33-8, 4th Atlantic

New York Islanders
-- Brutal. This is a definite re-build year for the Islanders and I have little interest detailing their inevitable ass-raping courtesy of their divisional rivals. On the flip side, they could be celebrating the first-overall pick at the draft lottery in the summer!

2008 Record: 35-38-9, 5th Atlantic
Projected '09: 32-41-9, 5th Atlantic

Philadelphia Flyers
-- Lost Umberger, but gained Simon Gagne back from a year of concussion rehab and an off-season of strength and conditioning. Having scored 40+ twice, the Flyers fans are desperate to keep him healthy and productive on a strong team that has all the tools to make some noise in the Eastern conference. They are extremely deep up the middle (Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Daniel Briere) and compliment it well with defenders (Timonen, Coburn, Jones) that can move the puck and contribute at both ends of the rink. Marty Biron was in his prime last season (30-20-9, .918SV%, 2.59GGA, 5SO) which means this young team has a lethal make-up: confidence, talent, motivation. I think they surprise a lot of people and win this division, and maybe get to the Finals if they're healthy.

2008 Record: 42-29-11, 4th Atlantic
Projected '09: 47-25-10, 1th Atlantic

For the next installment check back in a few days, or toss my site into your RSS catalog and let the computer do the work for you!

Ode to Roy Halladay: Best in the MLB?

I read a piece earlier today which called Roy Halladay over-rated and instantly tore through an excruciating emotional cycle.

I refuse to link to the original piece, so you'll have to take my word for it that someone actually wrote (and hence, believes) that Harry Leroy 'Roy' "Doc" Halladay is bloody over-rated. I submit to you the fragile introspections that brewed following the sight of such baseless criticism of one of baseballs' finest.

Denial: There is no way someone is dumb enough to believe that Halladay is over-rated. No sane person can ignore his career stats, the significance of his 5 All Star selections and the Cy Young Award of 2003?

Anger: How could I stand idly by while an individual grossly disrespects the only reason baseball is worth watching in Toronto?

Aggression: I'd like to meet this guy and beat some sense into him -- a solid 3:1 ratio of K's to BB's like Halladay will suffice (and by K's I mean strikes to the face, throat and sternum, BB's of the boots to the ass and kidneys variety).

Depression: Beating stats into people will never cause them to change their opinion of someone. If you're foolish enough to claim Halladay is over-rated, you probably dislike his trademark beard, rather than his ability on the mound. This hopeless neglect is deeply saddening, my waning motivations are powerless in face of such dire futility.

Bargaining: But wait, there's more -- he finishes nearly 1/6th of the games he starts, has an insanely low career WHIP of 1.21 (Top 10 Active) with opponents managing a hit against him but 1/4th of their at-bats, and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2002 (3rd Active W/L- 106/45, Top 10 Active ERA+, youngest Active member of the 11SO Club, finished 1st, 3rd and 5th in Cy Young voting, and is feared and respected by his accomplished peers).

Acceptance: 50% of the population is below average intelligence, so there are bound to be idiots everywhere. It's a shame they have to write about things in which they have failed to give adequate consideration to, but their short-comings ultimately benefit crusaders of truth and accurate characterizations like myself. I win, life is great.

Thanks for stopping in, returning is made easier if you subscribe. Cheers, Derek.

Weekly Wed. All-NHL Podcast #14

Good Afternoon Sarah Shahi. ===>>>>>


Enjoy this weeks musings on all things related to the NHL [Runs 20min].

Topics include:

• Is the Glow Puck is BAAACK? Clearly there are better ways to pimp the NHL, but is this, and focusing on Sidney Crosby all part of the problem and not the solution?
• More vacancies than Detroit Motels: Who will be coaching your team next season?
  
• The Tombstone Reads: Bye-Bye Philly and Dallas. Listen to why they will be golfing in a New York minute, and look forward to a final we've seen before (think NY Islanders dynasty beating the up-and-coming Edmonton Oilers in the 82-83 Final).

Cheers and thank for listening -- Derek.