The Sundin Aftermath: He stays, who wins??

It looks like John Ferguson Jr. has risen from the grave and stabbed the hearts of Leaf fans yet again. By giving captain Mats Sundin transcendental ability to veto any and all trade offers the former general manager handed the new one a shroud knot that proved too securely fastened. Yes, Mats will remain a Maple Leaf and thus divide the fans of the blue and white into one of two camps:
1. Mats is a selfish jerk. The Leafs are destined for innumerable seasons in the dumpster.
2. Mats has earned the right to choose and I admire a captain who goes down with his ship, regardless of how bad my team will be next season.

But, wait! We needn't be shortsighted and hasty to judge Mats, particularly without considering the outcome of his decision, rather than the decision itself. Its not like whatever Cliff Fletcher could have received in return for Mats Sundin would have turned them around fast enough to sneak into the playoffs. Even if this miraculous feat occurred it would be ill conceived -- they need to be bad for a good pick, so keeping the current good-enough-for-14th-place nucleus together is paradoxically advantageous -- it's just the nature of the cycle in sports where you have to be bad to be good.


There is yet another simple scenario whereby Mats can atone (assuming one demands atonement, as per above) for this trade deadline decision. When he sits down to re-negotiate his contract prior to next season, he will be given the opportunity to demonstrated where his allegiances lie. Assume he agrees to a sizable pay cut; so sizable that the Leafs now have $4-5 million extra dollars in which they can do as they please. Surely having Mats in addition to $4-5mil extra under the cap would perk up a few Leaf fans on this otherwise gloomy day?

As for the other party in this negotiation, signing Mats for pennies on the dollar is the only scenario in which we'd judge Cliff Fletchers' brief reign as a success. Notwithstanding the fact that JFJ left him with an organization in the contractual Clink, Fletcher has yet to improve the Toronto Maple Leafs, precisely what he was hired to do.

Unfortunately for Cliff, it could get much worse before it gets better. What if Mats retires? Imagine the ire of the Leafs Nation in the event Mats hangs them up at the end of this season abruptly erasing the optimistic picture painted above? Cliff Fletcher would instantly be transformed from The Silver Fox to The Horses Ass. His legacy being forever tarnished in the process (once again, thanks in part to JFJ and MLSE).

Since Toronto will be talking about this for the remainder of the year -- and sadly -- for many seasons to come, I thought it necessary to enlighten my readers with the above considerations. Please go forth, and spread the reason and rationality you've gleamed from this piece throughout the streets and airwaves of Southern Ontario and save us from the clamoring fools who think Mats, JFJ, Cliff and the MLSE board should leap from the CN Tower for their injustices upon hockey fans.

Counting Down the Sundin Saga: Make or Break for Mats. (w/ Chart)

It is with a substantial degree of reservation that I throw my hat into a ring whose floor is completely saturated with those of others also speculating on the future of Mats Sundin and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Fortunately for myself and my valued readership, I am much smarter than most of my colleagues, hence the necessity of my commentary on this burning issue.

That being said, I always strive to differentiate myself from the pack. Here, via a chart , is a slightly innovative way to dissect the current speculation regarding Mats Sundin and a variety of NHL clubs. Besides, doesn't reading a chart make you feel smarter and more efficient regardless? Well it should, so check this out:



Looks far more concise when framed in that manner, doesn't it? It also leaves plenty of room for explanation as well.

Please note that players named are listed as BEST-case, and under no circumstances will these players be easily acquired. It is Cliff Fletchers' job to suss out deals of this magnitude, thus we are required to consider the names mentioned.

Secondly, it is very obvious that draft picks often shape these deals. They are therefore impossible to speculate on since they are commonly used by GM's to find a common ground in the negotiation(s). Speculating on where the picks will fall is determined once the players are settled, and since we are not privy to this knowledge I didn't waste time analyzing potential draft picks. Furthermore, it is my belief that Cliff is looking for young players who currently offer NHL-level talent in addition to star potential moving forward, with draft picks being a very close secondary priority.

Lastly, the comments in the “Would Cliff Pull the Trigger?” column are terse for the purposes of space. Each one has been expanded on in great detail in several of my previous podcasts and articles that can be found here and here.

Those with a keen arithmetic sense will also note the likelihood percentages sum to 100. Yes, I think there is 0% chance Mats will stay a Toronto Maple Leaf. Surprised?

Comments and thoughts are more than welcome. Thanks for reading – Derek.

The Corporate NHL: We the dying stand united.

[Edit: Note the Date of Publication. JFJ was fired 4 days later (Jan22). Enjoy!]

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General Managers all over the league have been outspoken with their steadfast disapproval of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainments' lack of professional etiquette and disrespectful conduct. Most prominently this furor is directed at the 'debacle' (to quote Leafs' Coach Paul Maurice) characterized by the effectively labeled Lame Duck GM John Ferguson Jr., who thanks to MLSE's procedural malfeasance is presently handcuffed to the radiator staring at the Trade Hotlines off in the distance.

According to hardliner, and fellow GM Brian Burke, JFJ doesn't have a leg to stand on when he reaches out in the trade market. Burke draws from his experience as a lame Duck in Vancouver when he alludes to the near impossibility of making a deal considered equitable on both sides. When cornered similarly to JFJ, Burke claims that anchors and puck bags were the best offers available for his legitimate stars on the trade block – a consequence owing to the reluctance of his team to extend his contract. Just as with Ferguson currently, Burke -- and the rest of the league – knew then that he would not be returning the following season, thus forcing the Lame Duck to deal with insufferable GM's looking to vulture any valuable assets available.

Fergusons' long-standing inability to improve the roster of the Maple Leafs aside, the impact of MLSE and their managerial decision-making are complicit with their on-ice shortcomings. As the most profitable organization in professional hockey, they screwed their fans and supporters, their team and organization by refusing to extend Fergusons' contract. Irrespective of their intentions to retain JFJ in his current position, the assertion that he could perform in the straitjacket that is his current contractual situation is elementary and wrong; as is demonstrated above and historically.

While the other GM's vocally sympathize for their brethren, little else can be said for their efforts to improve JFJ's situation. The common bond among these men is inherently paradoxical: they are ALL trying to improve their team at the expense of one another (particularly at the trade deadline which rapidly approaches). With JFJ's current level of desperation palpable across the NHL, there is an understandable harmony between the empathy and blood lust among his cohorts.

In the near term, we will learn little from all of this. JFJ will be replaced and the Maple Leafs will unload undesirable contracts prior to the trade deadline and in the off-season. Barring further organization restructuring, the likelihood of an expedited return to greatness seems unlikely as the business of hockey will always come before the quality on the ice – something that has become increasingly evident for fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs over the past decade.

However immoral and deceitful the conduct of MLSE brass, they must be reminded that years from now the boldly-listed black ink that marks Torontos' bottom line cannot, and will not, overshadow the epic disappointment that is their franchise.

BREAKING: Maple Leafs make Tavares an offer.

Very interesting reporting from Dave Shoalts of the Globe and Mail has revealed that the Leafs are up to some trickery – or at least up to something other than underachieving. A very unique set of circumstances surrounding the OHL's top goal scoring talent have prompted the Leafs to offer John Tavares an equally unique employment opportunity.

Much has been made about Tavares domination in the OHL and his failure to receive an exception for the next NHL draft – for which he is 5 days too young for eligibility. Tragic as it may be given the success of young talents like Toews, Kane, Cogliano, Gagner, and Price in the equally young season, the NHL has chosen to remain stringent on its draft eligibility policy.

Rather than play another season in the OHL, Tavares and his agent have some decisions to make. They have shopped around for interest in Europe, and now are considering an offer which would see Tavares opt out of the draft and play for the AHL's Toronto Marlies.

The 18yo age restriction holds in the AHL as it does in the NHL, making Tavares ineligible to play in either league until 2009-'10. The Marlies deal offers the comfort of familiarity and the opportunity to play very close to home. Aside from the geographical benefits, the prospect of joining the Maple Leafs as soon as he meets the NHL age requirements will provide a strong influence. But, there are a few key hurdles that require jumping before Tavares could ever play for the Leafs.

Unless Toronto can grease the skids prior to draft day, the likely #1 pick will command a hefty sum, and thus force the Maple Leafs to swap club assets for his rights – or worse – require Tavares to hold out and stay in the AHL for two additional seasons. This is due to restrictions whereby a given player must be two years removed from the original draft selection in order to sign with another NHL team.

Should the Leafs be unable to deal for Tavares rights, he would essentially have to forfeit any chance of playing in the NHL (for a team other than Toronto) in order to void any obligation to the organization with his draft rights until 2011, where he can then sign as an unrestricted free agent. While some will justifiably point out Tavares' reluctance to wait until he is 20yo before playing in the NHL, this scenario with the Maple Leafs allows him to sign as an UN-restricted free agent and thus fetch far more money than he would under current entry-level salary restrictions.

It is slightly complicated, and perhaps not the path of least resistance, but it's a proactive initiative by a GM hanging onto his job by a single of his slickly-combed hairs. Any attempt to acquire goal scoring for a team that has failed miserably in the talent development department gets a pat on the back at this point. Bringing in Tavares will create a vastly improved atmosphere at the Ricoh Colosseum, and will foster a winning attitude in the Marlies dressing room -- something that will hopefully carry over with the players that graduate to the big dance and lace 'em up for the Leafs.

If Tavares has the patience to play two full seasons in the AHL prior to becoming a Maple Leaf, he will be a hero on a Toronto club in dire need of a pure goal scorer. But we know he wants a crack at the NHL badly, making this scenario about as likely as John Ferguson Jr. holding onto his job at the conclusion of this NHL season.

Sports on Cloud Nine: Why the Toronto Maple Leafs can't win.

In all major sports there is an ebb and flow among their player personnel that is characterized by a combination of free agent signings, and player development – both internally among existing players and externally from players in the AHL, and junior.

The teams least favored to win, who will look to improve anyway they can, typically hold onto their cards and trust their blossoming talents will continue to develop and improve. It's best we don't burden ourselves with the equivalent of un-sinking the Titanic by trying to dissect their woes, so we'll move on to consider contenders (and pretenders).

At this point in the season it is fun to put on the General Managers' hat and think about what can be done to improve hockey clubs. For the likes of Ottawa, Pittsburgh, San Jose and Vancouver – all teams expected to be the at the pinnacle of their conference – it is most likely that free agent acquisitions, rather than development, will improve their chances of winning the Stanley Cup. They are granted this luxurious position largely to consistent success in player development. Their rosters feature a high relative percentage of mature young players that now CONTRIBUTE in their line up on a day to day basis. Think Spezza, Crosby, Cheechoo, and Bieksa. Listed from their respective teams above, they are exemplary models of what good player development can do for an organization.

Since we are playing GM, we can't overlook another huge reason player development is vital to success in the NHL: it is cheap! Free agents are always costly and ubiquitously overpaid, whereas nursing and nurturing talent from within allows you to sign them at a discount. This is why the Detroit Red Wings dominate annually with a roster full of skaters you've never heard of. They scout, draft and develop better than any team in the league over the past decade. Their soft division aside, the savings on their developed talent award them a little more freedom come the trade deadline when a costly acquisition might bolster their chances of making it to the dance.

Presented as a polar opposite from Detroit are their Original Six rivals down the 401 in Toronto. The Maple Leafs' model in the pre-salary cap era poo-pooed on talent development in favor of real time success. They would errantly discard prospects and draft picks for the good of that season and to the detriment of future campaigns. They were the NHL's New York Yankees as they unsustainably bought wins (but not Cups – Ouch)! However, in todays NHL where the ~$50 million salary cap handcuffs the big spendings in a futile effort to achieve parity, player development is the be-all, end-all when it comes to the success of your franchise. Thats right, I said it. Player development and the ultimate contributions they make towards improving your franchise will determine where the final resting place in the standings.

The Leafs represent the utmost incompetence when it comes to strengthening your organization from within. On their current roster players like Wellwood, Stajan, Steen (24th overall), Coliacavo (17th Overall), Antropov (10th Overall) continue to disappoint. I could continue, but I won't dare bore you with their mediocre numbers, personalities and contributions overall to the success of the Maple Leafs. Instead, I'll submit to you what I think is the most overlooked factor in the careers and lives of these young men playing in Toronto; a team whose surfeit of hacks and underachievers that can't seem to break out and make a name for themselves. But, why?

Toronto is the center of the hockey universe. The locker room is jammed with media personalities from the drop of the puck at the first practice of the pre-season. To think that it only picks up after that is just mind-numbing. Young Maple Leafs get the rock star treatment from day one and their celebrity status is instantaneous. They get recognized sooner, they get hot woman easier, they get more attention from everyone starting almost as prematurely as Leafs coverage on TSN. This is a phenomena almost unique to TO.

As a stark contrast to the Great White North, Americans largely don't give a rats' you-know-what about the NHL. In a big US city, the top 2-3 faces in the dressing room MIGHT be able to get into VIP at the hot local club, while the rest of the guys are waiting in line with the plumber from Boston, and the secretary from Washington. These small-market players are infused with a blue-collar type attitude that demands performance BEFORE recognition – something TO has entirely backwards.

As a result, Toronto players are bred with a poisonous heir of entitlement at a young age. This attitude, on both the conscious and subconscious levels is disastrous not just in sport, but many aspects of life. We can positively attribute their lack of development and subsequent mediocrity to this mental factor. Compare have and have-nots in any scenario in life and sport: the motivation to get out of the gutter is much greater when you don't have a pot to pee in (or a window to throw it out of). In cities where your not getting the time of day unless you're a top line player, the motivation for the young guys on 2nd and 3rd lines trying to make a name for themselves is immensely greater than that in Toronto. We can't underestimate the intrinsic fury generated by being ignored or overlooked – especially among young, testosterone/ego fueled professional athletes. Having to perform and excel in order to get to get your name in the paper, causes one to work harder in the gym and on the ice. Up and coming players in small markets have more success early because they need to succeed in order to get a piece of face time on Sportscenter, or to jack up their market value in the eyes of general managers around the league. The drive to succeed when you have been overlooked is MUCH greater than that of an individual who feels they have little to prove in lieu of their perceived success.

Lets tackle the other side of the coin in the media infested Toronto locker room, since I know the most common argument regarding the medias' affect on TO players is the added pressure. 'So what about the intensified criticism they are subjected to as a result of their prolific status', as many suggest? It doesn't matter. Most young cocksure athletes are sufficiently full of themselves to overcome the degree of scrutiny and criticism they face. I'd argue it is much easier to get by in Toronto, where even the godly Mats Sundin can't make it a week without his value being questioned. Once again, getting ripped is better than not getting noticed. Steen gets a pat on the back via a picture on Page One if he pops a game winner in TO. But, score 30+ goals in Colorado or Florida and you'll still just the guy listed in the Box Scores near the back. The Broncos and the football-crazed state of Florida couldn't care less about you, and more often then not I'd argue this defines the career of young up-and-comers in the NHL.

Just contrast the success rate for draft picks coming out of small markets and compare it to those from big market teams who echo TO's struggle to develop players. The New York Rangers have been victimized by a parallel course of action, but they are finally staged to make a run this year on the shoulders of their stud Goaltender, and 7th round draft pick, Hendrik Lundqvist. Think the Leafs will right the ship?