MLB Playoffs: Manny v. the Curse; Howard v. Fielder.

I've been wrestling with these MLB picks for almost a week and am pretty much spinning my wheels. It could be a product of the parity, or a measure of my own aversion to the National League; whatever the problem it's about to be resolved. On the eve of the 2008 MLB Playoffs, here are your picks...

The National League

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
-- how about a round of applause for these two teams! It's a miracle that two clubs with such horrendous starting pitching made it this far. If you've caught a highlight pack in the last month you'll know that Sabathia would win the Cy Young had he played the entire year in the NL (since coming over, 11-2; K/BB- 5.12; ERA-1.65; WHIP -1.00). He is the reason the Brewers are in the playoffs, which is highly commendable and unfortunate. If history has its way, Sabathia's heavy workload will catch up with him and the Brewers will look back on this series knowing he threw too many innings, too frequently to continue at such a savage pace.

A contrast of the bats on either club is a tub of war with the girth and power of Howard balanced by Prince Fielder, the speed and consistency of Utley nearly matched from Ryan Braun and capable shortstops Rollins v. Hardy nearly sawing off one another's contribution. Because the Phillies have a decided edge in overall pitching (starting by a mite, bullpen by a mile) this series will likely end with the Brewers taking a splash and the Phillies taking a shower (in their celebratory bubbly).

Other notable players to watch: Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge (Phillies Ace and lock down closer, respectively), Eric Gagne and Salomon Torres (the gas cans in the Brewers bullpen).

Grading The Edge:
Starters: Phillies B-, Brewers C
Bullpen: Phillies A, Brewers C-
Bats: Phillies A, Brewers A
Winner: Phillies in 4
____________________


Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
-- from two of the biggest metropolises on Earth emanates a pair of the most intriguing story lines in baseball: Manny and the Curse.

Man-Ram has stormed LA like an a Mexican who just leapt the fence -- and the Dodgers are loving it. The ball park is his domain and all Manny has done is affirm his dominance of the batters box (since the trade: AB-187; Hits-74; HR-17; RBI-53; AVG.-396; OPS-1.232).

The Cubs are resisting the omnipresent force of their 100-year Championship-less drought. With the guidance of Lou Piniella working the bench and the best starting pitching remaining in the NL (Dempster, Zambrano, Harden, Lilly) they will get themselves one step closer to breaking their unparalleled streak of futility.

Other notable players to watch: Micah Hoffpauir (Cubs rookie with a hot bat), Aramis Ramirez (Cubs offensive MVP), Russell Martin (Dodgers catcher, best-all around players in LA), Jeff Kent and Rafael Furcal (both on the active playoff roster, but injured).

Grading The Edge:
Starters: Cubs A+, Dodgers A
Bullpen: Cubs B+, Dodgers A-
Bats: Cubs A, Dodgers B
Winner: Cubs in 4
_______________________

Check out the radio show tonight at 6pm by clicking here. Also, subscribe here to have the American League edition send to you tomorrow. Cheers, Derek.

NHL Western Preview [Podcast]

Everything. Division breakdown, final points standings. Hint: The Kings are brutal and the Red Wings look good... Listen at your own risk:



Thanks for listening, more to come next week. -- Derek

All-NHL Podcast: Full Eastern Conference Preview

From the material posted previously comes an audio version of the 2008-2009 NHL Eastern Conference outlook. Listening is leisurely, so do it.



Thanks for listening. Check out the Western Conference version next week by subscribing here.

NHL Western Conf. Projected Standing (+ Links).

For the detailed analysis of how these numbers came to be, check out Part IV: Central, Part V: Pacific, and Part VI: Northwest.

Otherwise, here is a comprehensive forward projection of the 2008-2009 NHL season. Enjoy.



1. Detroit Red Wings.............49-25-8, 1st Central.............106pts

2. Dallas Stars.......................48-26-8, 1st Pacific...............104pts

3. Calgary Flames......................44-27-11, 1st NW..................99pts

4. San Jose Sharks....................46-27-9, 2nd Pacific..............101pts

5. Anaheim Ducks....................44-30-8, 3rd Pacific...............96pts

6. Edmonton Oilers.................42-30-10, 2nd NW.................94pts

7. Chicago Blackhawks...........42-30-10, 2nd Central..........94pts

8. Minnesota Wild................. 42-31-9, 3rd NW.....................93pts

9. Phoenix Coyotes-- 39-33-10, 4th Pacific, 88pts

10. Colorado Avalanche-- 39-34-9, 4th NW, 87pts

11. Nashville Predators -- 39-34-9 3rd Central, 87pts

12. Vancouver Canucks --- 38-34-10, 5th NW, 86pts

13. Columbus Blue Jackets -- 36-34-12, 4th Central, 85pts

14. St. Louis Blues-- 35-35-12, 5th Central, 82pts

15. Los Angeles Kings -- 33-40-9, 5th Pacific 75pts

7 Habits of Highly Effective NHL Forecasting: Part VI

The North West: My best estimation is that this division will come down to a very tight 3-horse race. That level of competitiveness which has existed among the Flames, Canucks, Oilers, Wild and Avalanche will eliminate their odds at a high seed in the West, but condition them nicely for playoff-style hockey.

Calgary Flames
-- Started last season at a geriatric pace and it cost them. Mikka Kiprusoffs' lukewarm performance and sub-par conditioning was the focus during that stretch, events which certainly need to be avoided for the '09 Flames to be successful. Built from the Net out, their defense is as strong as ever. Unless Dion Phaneuf catches the Hollywood-girlfriend jinx he will compete for the Norris Trophy with support coming from Reighr, Sarich, Aucoin and Warrener (although cap issues might see one of the latter two be dealt). Their only significant changes were up-front, signing Mike Cammelleri and Todd Bertuzzi to replace Tanguay and Owen Nolan, respectively. I consider both of these at least marginal upgrades, especially considering Cam's upside and the chip on Bertuzzi's shoulder. Otherwise, Iginla is the best captain in hockey and one of the leagues' most adept goal-scorers. All things considered I think they have what it takes to win the division and advance a few rounds in the tourney.

2008 Record: 42-30-10, 3rd Northwest
'09 Projection: 44-27-11, 1st NW

Minnesota Wild
-- Are a team defined by the sum of their parts. They are the system: boring, defensive, effective. They are also -- notably -- the defending Champs of this very tough division. The Wild lost former captain and 30-goal scorer Brian Rolston to free agency and failed miserably filling that void. For some* reason free agents want to play in Minnesota about as bad as they want gonorrhea (*the only thing people hate more than the coach is the system he forces upon his players). They'll need to cripple other teams offensive output to repeat as division champs (which is feasible given that Edmonton is the only club with a thoroughly intimidating attack). In the last year of his contract, pending UFA Marion Gaborik will be celebrating either way: his freedom at the end of the year, or as the highest-payed player in team history. Playing for a contract, I anticipate 40+ goals for Mighty Marion (10+ GWG, anyone?) and equally exciting efforts from the most under-rated tender in the game: Nik Backstrom. Minni needs everything to go right for them to win and I think they lack the punch for a title run.

2008 Record:44-28-10, 1st Northwest
'09 Projection: 42-31-9, 3rd NW

Colorado Avalanche
-- OMG Joe Sakic is back! With that announcement the Avalanche and their fans have experienced the most exciting moment of the entire campaign -- 2 months before it even started. Thanks largely to Jose Theodore over-achieving in a contract year (and then leaving town) the Av's won an impressive 44 games on their way to a playoff appearance last year. This year, however, is a different story. They will ice the goaltending tandem of Andrew Raycroft and Peter Budaj behind a line-up that fails boost my confidence. Can you blame me with aging stars Foote, Sakic, and Hejduk featured alongside others who've also jumped the shark: Tucker, Hannan, Smyth? On the upside lies their younger players who old-new Coach Tony Granato will rely on this year and beyond (Stastny, Wolski, Svatos). The combination of pillow-ish offensive punch, age, questionable goaltending, and a new coaching regime means this team is trending down and has a very real possibility of missing the playoffs.

2008 Record:44-31-7, 2nd Northwest
'09 Projection: 39-34-9, 4th NW

Edmonton Oilers
-- finished the season as one of the hottest teams in the NHL. Kevin Lowe is building a winner and we are going to get a taste of that this season. Up front they boast diversity in their size, skill and talent: the finesse of Gagner and Hemsky, strength from Penner and Eric Cole (acquired through trade) and the finish from Horcoff and Cogliano. This is a sexy under-dog pick for those looking at NHL futures, but beware of their defensive abilities. In order to acquire Cole they dealt promising D-man Joni Pitkanen leaving Souray, Visnovsky and Staios anchoring the unstable, but potentially brilliant combination of Dwayne Roloson and Mat Garon. Young, hungry and competitive I like this team to make the playoffs on their live ice and potentially battle their way into the second round. While the time is nigh for a run, the Cup is moving in another direction in the Western conference almost as dangerous as Kandahar.

2008 Record: 41-35-6, 4th Northwest
'09 Projection: 42-30-10, 2nd NW

Vancouver Canucks
-- ask fired GM Dave Nonis how to waste the best goalie in the NHL and he'll direct you to Vancouver's roster. Purged from this years squad is the last semblance of success in Van City as Naslund and Morrison bolted to greener pastures. Notwithstanding their marginal impact on the new clubs, Trevor Linden's retirement leaves a massive leadership void (to go with -- regrettably -- similarly abysmal talent). Bearish is the feeling on the Canucks this year and you shouldn't be surprised. Their only meaningful additions were Steve Bernier (via trade), and Kyle Wellwood (via giveaway). Nucks suck this year, sorry to my West Coast brethren but your only hope is an MVP-Vezina season from Luongo.

2008 Record:39-33-10, 5th Northwest
'09 Projection: 38-34-10, 5th NW

Are CFL Teams Worse Than Jr. College?

As a proud Canadian I feel a small responsibility to uphold the integrity of the Canadian Football League. Since I don't care for our Northern variety of football this is a very challenging task -- one which regular readers know I consciously avoid with regularity.

Taking a shot at the CFL is like hazing the kids coming off the short bus. Only the cruel and sadistic would take pleasure in making an autistic kid grind out a penny race against the Klinefelter. That being said, some people just can't resist.

When asked what his time in the CFL was like, current Baltimore Ravens linebacker Brendon Ayanbadejo replied:

"It was like being paid to play junior-college football. Junior college was fun, but it was definitely not as serious as Division I, and the CFL is definitely not nearly as serious as the NFL."

Jr. College? Ouch. Like the guys in the CFL needed another comparison to an inferior league? They all know they can't hack it in the NFL, but you don't have to pile it on like this Brendon. His experience was so off-putting and morose that he was surprised to be earning a pay cheque:

"You get paid to do it, and you have fun and travel around Canada and learn about other people and other customs."

There's a plus -- we are great people and this is a beautiful country. Unfortunately, our version of football is obscure and substandard. I challenge anyone with an argument in support of the CFL to be heard in the comments, as I'll surely find your efforts more amusing than the game itself. Brendon agrees.

Thanks for reading. Subscribe and make coming back a routine, you'll thank me later. Cheers, Derek.

Lee Not A Lock for AL Cy Young

Cliff Lee is pitching his ass off.

For emphasis, I allow that statement to get the room is deserves. Any pedestrian account would certainly puts Lee and his phenomenal wire-to-wire performance above that of any pitcher in the Bigs. According to ESPN, he currently ranks:

• Ranks 1st in AL in W (21)	• Ranks 2nd in AL in IP (201.2)
• Ranks 8th in AL in SO (154)	• Ranks 1st in AL in ERA (2.28)
• Ranks 2nd in AL in WHIP (1.05)	• Ranks 1st in AL in WPct (.913)
• Ranks 2nd in AL in CG (4)

A wholly impressive body of work that will without doubt award Lee Cy Young honours, right? Lets take the time to appropriately consider Roy Halladay's parallels:

• 2nd in AL in W (18)	• 1st in AL in IP (218.0)
• 3rd in AL in SO (185)	• 2nd in AL in ERA (2.64)
• 1st in AL in WHIP (1.04)	• 10th in AL in WPct (.667)
• 1st in AL in CG (8)

In and of themselves these data doesn't fully represent how close the race is. The superficial illustration above ignores more sophisticated models of performance: sabermetics. For that, please see this brilliant data table prepared by zeppelinkm which was shared over at Batter's Box. Courtesy of their efforts (summarized in the graphic below) we know that Cliff Lee has consistently faced inferior competition -- both opposing starters and opposing hitters.

This graphic shows the startling difference in the conditions under which Halladay and Lee have pitched. Roy Halladay has consistently faced more winning clubs who hit better, get on base more often and produce more runs on average, all while watching his club battle against stronger opposing pitchers and consequently produce less runs. Every metric posted above serves in favor of Halladay for the Cy Young.

If you're still unconvinced, consider the following data provided in the comment section to the aforementioned Batters Box article.

Against .750+ OPS Teams (Top-15)
Pitcher -- Games/IP/W-L/ERA

Roy------- 23 /163.1 /13-9 /2.98
Lee--------12 / 79.1 / 9-1 / 3.06

In the face of formidable opposition Lee has been outstanding. However, he's thrown half the innings against the baseball-crushing, pitching-stat inflating clubs that have hurt Halladays' numbers. To further this comparison, Magpie from Batters Box says:

"There are only five teams in the majors on pace to win 90+ games: Boston, Tampa, the Angels, and the two Chicago teams. Halladay has made 11 of his 29 starts against those five teams, and they account for 5 of his 9 losses (he has 6 wins against them). On the other hand, while Lee has made just 5 starts against those teams, he's been absolutely brilliant against them - he's 4-0, 1.15 in those five starts."

Vs. -.750 ops teams (Bottom-15)
Pitcher -- Games/IP/W-L/ERA

Roy ------- 7 /54.2 / 5-0 /1.65
Lee------- 15 / 113.1 / 11-1 / 1.91

This is self-explanatory: They both dominate poor-hitting teams. Note the difference in IP, a ratio that nearly mirrors that above.

The debate is raging and I am happy to propagate it here with some input of my own (with the acknowledged help of the data from others). Is there any hope for Halladay in the face of Lee's shiny 21-2 record? Probably not since the voters are less likely to consider all the quantifiable variables outlined herein. Maybe, just maybe they'll see this wonderful piece and change their minds! Digg it, Bark it, Email it and Subscribe -- for Roy's sake, not mine!

Thanks for reading and come back soon. Cheers, Derek.

Update: Here is another convincing piece from BP which quantified their strength-of-opposition in the EqA fashion.