Moneyball in the MLB: Why the Jays Won't Make the Playoffs

My open love for the Toronto Blue Jays has caused me a measurable degree of strife when conjuring a topic for my Thursday MLB piece. As the date will attest, my reluctance to speak truthfully and realistically on the fate of this years Blue Jays squad and the MLB playoffs has delayed the submission altogether. So procrastination be damned, and I'll be frank in order to hasten the onset of certain agony: the Blue Jays (sadly) will not make the playoffs this year.

In a sporting era of outstanding league-wide competitive balance, the scenario facing the Blue Jays in the AL East is similar to the polarization of talent which sports fans across North America are well acquainted with. The highly competitive AL East, the Western Conferences of the NBA and NHL, and the AFC in the NFL all proudly stand alongside one another touting the distinction of superiority. The effect remains clearly discernible for playoff hopefuls like Toronto who yearn for the luxury of competing against inferior talent; a luxury lost on the Blue Jays for over a decade caused by the prevalence of the Moneyball culture in the American League.

Unlike the other major sporting leagues whose spending is restricted by the owner-loving, player-robbing salary cap, the polarization of talent in baseball has been fostered through Moneyball. This philosophy, in contrast to Sabremetrics, is applied by teams in the affluent North East with abundant free capital used to purchase player services at rates otherwise unaffordable to smaller, less wealthy teams. What does this mean for the Blue Jays?

Interestingly, they are a combination of both philosophies, thanks largely Owner Ted Rogers for opening up his wallet, and secondarily to GM JP Ricciardi and the tutelage he received during his time with the Oakland Athletics. While his tenure as GM in Toronto has yielded a team with a poor identity and shattered expectations, the Blue Jays of 2008 have been said to change all that riding their strong pitching staff and post-surgery stars, BJ Ryan and Vernon Wells. While superficially it may appear that the Blue Jays have the tools to win 90+ games, but their fans are best suited understanding the limitations of the Black Hole in which they are entrenched, and applying the following conclusions to their expectations.

Each league awards 4 playoff spots, 3 to the winners of the respective divisions and the last (the wild card) to the outstanding team with greatest number of victories. There are two formidable opponents within the AL's NE division (arguably the toughest in baseball) in the form of the Yankees and the Red Sox. All rational delineation leads me to believe the Blue Jays cannot win the AL East, hence their goals must be fixed upon sneaking in as a wild-card. The only problem: winning the Wild Card will, in all likelihood, be more difficult than the proposed futility of challenging for their division title.

The AL Central has the Indians and the Tigers, the AL West has the Mariners and the Angles, all teams capable of winning the lions share in their respective divisions. Adding the three contenders from the well-stocked AL East (Boston , NY and Toronto) a little math dictates that the 4 non-division winners will be fighting for the lone wild card.

Considered in these terms it looks entirely bleak for the Blue Jays in a season erroneously dubbed by some to have the greatest hope and potential to-date under Ricciadri and Gibbons. The landscape of the MLB has thrown the Blue Jays a nearly un-hittable pitch set to perpetuate their lack of achievement over the course of the 15 years. Naturally their struggles can be attributed to a number of the aforementioned impedances, be it financial restrictions, personnel decisions or injuries. Nevertheless fans in Toronto should demand more for this organization, lest they get stuck with the perennially over-hyped and underachieving Toronto franchise that is sadly becoming the hallmark of the cities' sports organizations.

NFL: What the World has Wrong about the Perfect Patriots.

The best team ever? Maybe not. The most potent offense of all-time? Debatable. Super Bowl XLII champions? Probably.

The fact sheet on the Patriots greatness has been written in the blood of the reports who've been slurping them all year long. The knocks, however scarce they may be, have leaked through to the back pages and focus on the perceived ineptitude of their rushing attack.

While the trend among several powerhouse NFL franchises (Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans, Indianapolis, New England) has shifted in favor of passing to set up the run, a good tailback is still essential for anyone claiming to be a contender. Firstly, because it helps protect leads and shorten games, and secondarily because the cold playoff weather changes the scope and dynamics of your offensive game planning. The playoffs, which start in the dreaded winter season, cause havoc on the skill positions that are heavily relied upon to put points on the board. So when passing becomes more challenging due to the elements, you typically hand the ball off to your stalwart running back and hope your offensive line can manufacture some holes. It's this very factor that many mainstream talking heads have deemed New England's biggest liability and potential Achilles heel, as it is suggested that they've yet to demonstrate the ability to rush the ball with desirable proficiency.

Once again Bill Belichick has outsmarted the observers of the game; those whose job description includes accurate analysis of these critical parameters of victory (a group that also includes the 14 opposing coaching staffs his team has trampled this year). New England can run boys and girls, but heres the rub: Belichick just doesn't want them to, and for good reason.

Once the rosters are set, an NFL coaches ability to asses and exploit strategic advantages over their opponent is the primary determinate of their teams success. When two great field generals (in this case, the Coaches) face off in battle, they all plan based on the most likely course(s) of action of their opponents, it's game theory, and an extension of the Art of War. However, the best of the great generals forces their opponents into defending an attack that will never be launched through deception. The best generals attack formlessly, for the formless cannot be predicted, anticipated, nor defended, thus making it the clearest and most reliable path to victory. Only a fool fights battles he cannot win, and Belichick ensures through meticulous calculation that his team has the best chance to win every Sunday.

When breaking down the numbers, the strategy issued by Coach Belichick becomes increasingly well illustrated and transparent. Their current lead running back, Lawrence Maroney, was the secondary ball carrier last year, although he was impressive behind Corey Dillon who carried a mere 24 more times than Maroney in 2006. With Dillon out of the picture for the 2007 season, Maroney was promoted into the #1 tailback role. Enter Belichicks' genius.

It follows sound intuition that one might want to keep a pivotal piece of your championship puzzle rested and healthy, of course while brilliantly doing so not at the expense of Maroneys' learning and maturation processes. As the numbers show, Maroneys' mileage is nearly identical to his successful rookie campaign with total carries projected at only 4 greater (175 v. 179), while average yards/carry remains within 0.1(4.3 v. 4.2). Surprising are these figures given New England's pass-heavy offense, which effectively creates an average of about 4 less rushing opportunities per game. Even in the absence of the necessity to run, Belichick has quietly managed to get Maroney his essential carries in lieu of wearing him out deleteriously, all the while infatuating their defensive opposition with game planning for the Patriots lethal aerial attack.

Not only is the confidence of a young rusher effectively nurtured by these tactics, but Belichick has ensured optimal health and energy levels in highly valued, highly physical skill player. With a well rested, but battle-tested Maroney in the backfield come January, the elements will not sway the Patriots dominance, but facilitate it. Either the opposition stuffs the box to stop the climate-dependent running game, thus opening up the secondary for the pass, or they rush the passer conservatively and allow Maroney to run all over the field on them. This is the formless attack that Belichick has designed perfectly from game one. He has earned the distinction of greatness for reasons such as these – well, and that dynasty he's orchestrated in New England over the past decade.

To further recount the ways that Belichick has groomed the Patriots for greatness would result in a long-winded almanac deservedly set to music, featuring both food service and an interlude. He may not be charismatic and friendly, nor talkative or honest, but in the management of his on field personnel he has repeated proven his aptitude as an elite field general and strategic luminary. Look for Maroney to hog the ball in the second half of New England's playoff games, especially if they've got a lead on the frosty tundra of Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. Enjoy as the Patriots steamroll to 19-0 and a Super Bowl ring on the back of their reliable, rested and game-ready running back – err, and that Tom Brady guy, I've heard he's having an alright year.