Free Agent Pitchers: Blue Jays need a new Wing

Updated: 11/19/08:
And by wing I mean arm, but you should have known.

There are several arms available, but the value is not there for most of them. Sabathia, Burnett, Sheets, Dempster, Lowe, Moyer and Johnson complete the list of reasonable choices for JP Riccardi and the Blue Jays. When you get below the surface of these men you're really looking into some skeleton-filled lockers.

Sabathia and Burnett have been marathon men over the last two seasons. In fact, they have literally thrown more innings in the past two years than any other in the MLB. "Carbs and Calories" Sabathia and his cohort "Agitated Jerk" Burnett blew past career highs in IP in pretty impressive fashion last season -- C.C. in an effort to push the Brewers to the World Series, and A.J. attempting to aid the Jays' futile playoff drive. These two are perched atop the risk:reward pyramid with abused and potentially fragile arms and due a Kings ransom. Let the Yankees have them both, as I wouldn't be shocked if either man supplies the highest bidder a full compliment of starts (in Burnetts case I'll set the prop at 22 starts +/-, 25 for CC).

Sheets and Dempster are in the second tier -- notably, the one which I think offers the most tolerable risk (on a cost basis, of course). Sheets can hurl with the elite class of SP's in the major leagues, but has stumbled with injury recently (22,17,24 starts in 05-07, with 31 last season posting a solid 13-8, 3.09 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). The only way you should price Burnett above Sheets is if you've been seduced by the formers' stuff (and almost everyone is).

Ryan Dempster is another fiery right-hander with an interesting past. He started a mere 6 games in the four seasons from '04-'07 posting staggeringly high ERA coming out of the bullpen, most often in a closing role. The case for Dempster as a Blue Jays is an interesting one, and I can't pretend to possess sufficient insight to diagnose it correctly, so lets roll play.

Dempster's Agent: Coming out of the bullpen reduced the volume of innings he's thrown over his career, his ERA is historically lower when starting, playing in his home country would provide a comfortable atmosphere and ensure performance.

JP Riccardi: There is added pressure with pitching in Canada for Canadians and given his weak performance in the clutch during the playoffs I am doubtful of your last assumption. Also, we have a stocked bullpen and thin rotation, if Dempster struggles demotion is not an option. When coupled to the anomaly that was his most recent season, why should I pull the trigger on your boy?

Dempsters Agent: Pleeeease, have you checked the ticker recently? My investments are in the shitter and I need this commission like I've got the clap and it's the cure!

JP: Fine, 25mil over three years. Team option after year one and two...

End tangent. Bottom line is that Sheets trumps Dempster in nearly every category. I expect both will pitch slightly above average as a 2nd, 3rd man in whatever rotation they end up in.

Lowe, Moyer and Johnson are the grizzled veterans lingering for another kick at the can. Granted, Lowe is only 36 and clearly a better option than the ageless lefty's listed above. Lowe -- unfortunately for the Blue Birds -- has many suitors which could elevate his price north of Sheets-Dempster, while remaining to the South of Burnetts' plunder. Having pitched in the AL East before gives Lowe a considerable advantage over those new to such a daunting task. That being said, if Moyer or Johnson are willing to come North and bring their rubber arms with them, I'd welcome a grandfather-like figure who'd be willing to take a more vocal leadership role (I'm thinking Johnson could be one of the best player-coaches in baseball history and all he'd have to do is glare at people!).

A list, to capitulate all my speculation, non-sense and postulation. If I am JP, here's where I'm at:

1. Ben Sheets (rumours around Texas and Milwakee at the moment. Incentives will be the name of the game for this guy and his hamstring-of-the-arm tear. Flaky elbows aren't in line for solid dough.)

2. Derek Lowe (Boras client is asking 5-year at 18 mil per. Not really a surprise given the market, but I'm certain that prices him out of the range Riccardi would stomach. 4 years at 15 per might be a little more reasonable, but I'd let the Braves have him at that price.)

3. Ryan Dempster (signed 4 years, $52mil with the Cubs. Good luck, I hope for everyones sake he's healthy and can reproduce his walk-year performance... About that, Cubbies fans don't like my gut.)

3. Randy Johnson (Dodgers are reportedly interested, Angels are not. Cubs are "on the short list" according to his agent who is clearly fishing for offers after the Diamonbacks shortchanged them with 25% of the $8M/year he wanted.)

4. Jamie Moyer (Looks like he'll stay kozy and re-sign in Philly. Might be asking multi-year in excess of the $7M he was awarded last year. Dude, retire on top fo the game, you'll be 46 next year! Why does no one respect the Elway-way anymore?)

5. AJ Burnett (from MLB.com "As of Wednesday morning, every American League East team except Tampa Bay, plus the Phillies and Braves, were believed to be prepared to make an offer or were considering making an offer for Burnett." This will get interesting... he might fetch 16-18 million a season. WOW, he not coming back for that price.)

6. CC Sabathia (six-year, $140mil offer from the Yankees on the table. Reckon the Angels could steal him for $130?)

Fantasy Trade: Jays and Rockies shake things up?

Why Adriana Lima: because we can ------------->>

How about a stick and an arm for a softie and headcase? That is the focus of todays vicious, totally unsubstantiated trade rumour courtesy of Cloud9 Sports. I'm just gonna throw it out there, if you don't wanna take it just go ahead and push it back:

Vernon Wells and AJ Burnett for Matt Holiday and Jeff Francis.

Bullocks you say? Lets take a closer look and reserve judgment for a moment...

Overweight, under achieving, would-rather-be-playing-in-the-U.S.A. Vernon has been no where near the player his contract indicates he should be. Many would place him in the relocate-and-thrive club after two seasons of disappointment for the blue birds. With his Gold Glove years apparently in the rear-view mirror to stay (his range factor was a league-worst for CF'ers in 2007), he'd be a tough sell as a stand alone. Armed with a no-trade, a move to a contender would be preferred, but if the Blue Jays get any worse, who's to say he doesn't loosen his criteria for relocation?

Consider AJ Burnett and his well-documented mental lapses and trade eligibility as the perfect addition to any potential trade package. He all but asked for a ticket out of town, and what better way to spite him then send his ass to a struggling Colorado team?

All that Jays GM JP Riccardi need ask for in return? A near-MVP and a potential stud left-hander. However unlikely the transaction in the form above, acquiring pieces like Holliday and Francis could go a long way in solidifying the Jays push to get out of the AL East for the first time since 1993. Pitching, particularly left-handers, will always be welcomed. As a Canadian-lad, Jeff Francis would likely welcome the trade with open arms, having little connection to the Rockies other than his roots in Vancouver.

Holliday is coming off his best season to date and is a potential franchise slugger. Following his RotY performance in 2004, Matt has steadily improved on his ability to hit for average and power. Nearing triple-crown numbers last season he lead the Rockies in their push for the World Series title and was reward with a 2-year extension. With the Rockies in a tenuous financial situation, perhaps Holliday will welcome a transition to a team willing to re-up their studs in manner fitting (and in the case of Wells, surpassing) their contribution.

But, does it work for both sides? Not really, no. The Rockies would be crazy to part with both of these relative youngsters for guys that are looking washed up and potentially past-prime. Asking for both Francis and Holliday will likely receive a laugh from Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd. The trade is design to elicit a counter-offer, perhaps in the form of Holliday and a pitching prospect.

With the prospect representing fair value for the near valueless AJ Burnett, one switches their attention to the Wells v. Holliday discussion. The numbers and potential greatly favor Holliday, so what's in it for the Rockies? Perhaps the addition of some maturity (?) and a little bit of presence in the locker room? Nah. Wells has shown these attributes to be minimal, but managers can fall in love with past performances which in this case, might be his (and Torontos') saving grace.

The likelihood of a deal like this being executed is admittedly quite low. Perhaps this piece best serves are a barometer for the (sadly lacking) talent of certain Blue Jays. At best the Rockies agree to a blockbuster and get robbed of two promising players for two over-paid disappointments. At worst, the Jays let AJ walk at seasons end, and Vernon flounder in center as Rios' defensive talents marinate in right. The end game is JP Riccardi's failure manifest in a playoff-less Blue Jays team so desperate to shake things up they are signing everyone from the 92-93 World Championships. Burn.

Thanks for reading. Be sure to check out the Radio show tomorrow (Tuesday 6-9pm) and subscribe to show your love. Cheers, Derek.

AJ Burnett burns the Blue Jays; they don't mind.

AJ Burnett is going to get traded; we should get used to talking about this. If and until it happens, according to him, he's pitching the best he can for the Blue Jays. However, if a trade happens he'll welcome it with “open arms”.

So you're thinking I am going to turn this into a rip on the same jackass who tipped his hat after being a dumpster fire last week, but I'm not. I ripped him for his gesture then because he was being defiant and agitating to the people who want nothing more than to see him succeed. Thats the not the attitude fans want to see, but honest by contrast is greatly desired.

So when AJ Burnett says:

“If something were to happen and I'd have the opportunity to go to a place where baseball is breakfast, lunch and dinner, that would be awesome. Right now, my focus is with this club. But if something like that were to happen, I'd accept it with open arms. “

... I can deal with it. Not because I'm a fan, or even a supporter, but because I think he's totally in line with everyones expectations. Who doesn't respect a little honesty from an athlete these days? I welcome any comment not a clichéd sound bite the same way I would a free lapdance: the more the merrier. Burnett just broke the mold in a fashion we'd expect from the Mad Ink member.

He is a talented pitcher who has underachieved and and frustrated as a Blue Jay. His contract contains an opt out clause at seasons' end. The team is struggling, has excellent young starters and needs a bat. It all adds up to Burnett being logical trade bait – everyone knows this. His decision to address the matter in the manner he did shows his character: I welcome a trade, but I'll bust my ass while I'm here.

That's Burnett – in your face and nasty. Also, a relatively simple man as exhibited by his two-pitch arsenal. His response is what a millionaire athlete on a well-paid 3-year stop over in Toronto is probably thinking, except he's the only one with the stones to say it.

Burnetts' get-out-of-jail card in my books is the fact that effort doesn't explain his flaws. (In fact, he could use a little less at times, particularly when his control issues arise.) Because it's always been there for Allan James, we'll know when it isn't. It doesn't suit his purpose to screw the pooch and someone as shrewd as Burnett (at least in the current situational context) has recognized this. (OK, maybe his agent told him...)

Whatever the compensation outcome for Burnett and the Blue Jays both parties will be better off. Don't waste time and energy getting upset over a player that we already knew would rather be playing elsewhere. Instead, lets focus on the ROI; a youngster with a bat in the outfield might be great, but I'm sure Riccardi will manage to get much, much less. Maybe at that point we can finally get to talking about his ticket out of town...

Thanks for reading. Check out the Radio show Tomorrow (Tuesday) night and subscribe for the win. Cheers, Derek.