Lee Not A Lock for AL Cy Young

Cliff Lee is pitching his ass off.

For emphasis, I allow that statement to get the room is deserves. Any pedestrian account would certainly puts Lee and his phenomenal wire-to-wire performance above that of any pitcher in the Bigs. According to ESPN, he currently ranks:

• Ranks 1st in AL in W (21)	• Ranks 2nd in AL in IP (201.2)
• Ranks 8th in AL in SO (154)	• Ranks 1st in AL in ERA (2.28)
• Ranks 2nd in AL in WHIP (1.05)	• Ranks 1st in AL in WPct (.913)
• Ranks 2nd in AL in CG (4)

A wholly impressive body of work that will without doubt award Lee Cy Young honours, right? Lets take the time to appropriately consider Roy Halladay's parallels:

• 2nd in AL in W (18)	• 1st in AL in IP (218.0)
• 3rd in AL in SO (185)	• 2nd in AL in ERA (2.64)
• 1st in AL in WHIP (1.04)	• 10th in AL in WPct (.667)
• 1st in AL in CG (8)

In and of themselves these data doesn't fully represent how close the race is. The superficial illustration above ignores more sophisticated models of performance: sabermetics. For that, please see this brilliant data table prepared by zeppelinkm which was shared over at Batter's Box. Courtesy of their efforts (summarized in the graphic below) we know that Cliff Lee has consistently faced inferior competition -- both opposing starters and opposing hitters.

This graphic shows the startling difference in the conditions under which Halladay and Lee have pitched. Roy Halladay has consistently faced more winning clubs who hit better, get on base more often and produce more runs on average, all while watching his club battle against stronger opposing pitchers and consequently produce less runs. Every metric posted above serves in favor of Halladay for the Cy Young.

If you're still unconvinced, consider the following data provided in the comment section to the aforementioned Batters Box article.

Against .750+ OPS Teams (Top-15)
Pitcher -- Games/IP/W-L/ERA

Roy------- 23 /163.1 /13-9 /2.98
Lee--------12 / 79.1 / 9-1 / 3.06

In the face of formidable opposition Lee has been outstanding. However, he's thrown half the innings against the baseball-crushing, pitching-stat inflating clubs that have hurt Halladays' numbers. To further this comparison, Magpie from Batters Box says:

"There are only five teams in the majors on pace to win 90+ games: Boston, Tampa, the Angels, and the two Chicago teams. Halladay has made 11 of his 29 starts against those five teams, and they account for 5 of his 9 losses (he has 6 wins against them). On the other hand, while Lee has made just 5 starts against those teams, he's been absolutely brilliant against them - he's 4-0, 1.15 in those five starts."

Vs. -.750 ops teams (Bottom-15)
Pitcher -- Games/IP/W-L/ERA

Roy ------- 7 /54.2 / 5-0 /1.65
Lee------- 15 / 113.1 / 11-1 / 1.91

This is self-explanatory: They both dominate poor-hitting teams. Note the difference in IP, a ratio that nearly mirrors that above.

The debate is raging and I am happy to propagate it here with some input of my own (with the acknowledged help of the data from others). Is there any hope for Halladay in the face of Lee's shiny 21-2 record? Probably not since the voters are less likely to consider all the quantifiable variables outlined herein. Maybe, just maybe they'll see this wonderful piece and change their minds! Digg it, Bark it, Email it and Subscribe -- for Roy's sake, not mine!

Thanks for reading and come back soon. Cheers, Derek.

Update: Here is another convincing piece from BP which quantified their strength-of-opposition in the EqA fashion.

An Open Letter to MLB Video Replay: Welcome!

Dear MLB Video Replay:

Welcome to 2008. I'm sure catching up with the times was extraordinarily exhausting but you need to know how worthwhile your efforts are to baseball. You have the support of every human being having witnessed a Major League Baseball game since the Negro Leagues, in addition to anyone excluded above with the capacity to wipe their own ass.

Your presence is so valuable that we are willing to tolerate your shortcomings. You're late, but we forgave you just as soon as you showed up. You're a job-threatening robot, but your consistency and reliability are far too valuable to go without any longer.

What I like most is your drive to succeed. You persevered in the face of such strong resistance from the purists (see fans sired before World War I, pseudo-geriatrics and the Crypt Keeper). You have the heartwarming capacity to humiliate 4 -- and sometimes as many as 6 -- fat egomaniacal stooges, a consortium whom are ironically your most dubious foes.

Thank you for coming and enlightening those previously blinded. Thank you for fighting the good fight and standing up for what you believe in.

Sincerely,

Derek from Cloud9.

PS -- I told'da so, I friggin' tolda so. In October of 2007, I told the world why MLB should adpot instant replay.
PSS - Subscribe here for the win.

Ode to Roy Halladay: Best in the MLB?

I read a piece earlier today which called Roy Halladay over-rated and instantly tore through an excruciating emotional cycle.

I refuse to link to the original piece, so you'll have to take my word for it that someone actually wrote (and hence, believes) that Harry Leroy 'Roy' "Doc" Halladay is bloody over-rated. I submit to you the fragile introspections that brewed following the sight of such baseless criticism of one of baseballs' finest.

Denial: There is no way someone is dumb enough to believe that Halladay is over-rated. No sane person can ignore his career stats, the significance of his 5 All Star selections and the Cy Young Award of 2003?

Anger: How could I stand idly by while an individual grossly disrespects the only reason baseball is worth watching in Toronto?

Aggression: I'd like to meet this guy and beat some sense into him -- a solid 3:1 ratio of K's to BB's like Halladay will suffice (and by K's I mean strikes to the face, throat and sternum, BB's of the boots to the ass and kidneys variety).

Depression: Beating stats into people will never cause them to change their opinion of someone. If you're foolish enough to claim Halladay is over-rated, you probably dislike his trademark beard, rather than his ability on the mound. This hopeless neglect is deeply saddening, my waning motivations are powerless in face of such dire futility.

Bargaining: But wait, there's more -- he finishes nearly 1/6th of the games he starts, has an insanely low career WHIP of 1.21 (Top 10 Active) with opponents managing a hit against him but 1/4th of their at-bats, and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2002 (3rd Active W/L- 106/45, Top 10 Active ERA+, youngest Active member of the 11SO Club, finished 1st, 3rd and 5th in Cy Young voting, and is feared and respected by his accomplished peers).

Acceptance: 50% of the population is below average intelligence, so there are bound to be idiots everywhere. It's a shame they have to write about things in which they have failed to give adequate consideration to, but their short-comings ultimately benefit crusaders of truth and accurate characterizations like myself. I win, life is great.

Thanks for stopping in, returning is made easier if you subscribe. Cheers, Derek.

Fantasy Trade: Jays and Rockies shake things up?

Why Adriana Lima: because we can ------------->>

How about a stick and an arm for a softie and headcase? That is the focus of todays vicious, totally unsubstantiated trade rumour courtesy of Cloud9 Sports. I'm just gonna throw it out there, if you don't wanna take it just go ahead and push it back:

Vernon Wells and AJ Burnett for Matt Holiday and Jeff Francis.

Bullocks you say? Lets take a closer look and reserve judgment for a moment...

Overweight, under achieving, would-rather-be-playing-in-the-U.S.A. Vernon has been no where near the player his contract indicates he should be. Many would place him in the relocate-and-thrive club after two seasons of disappointment for the blue birds. With his Gold Glove years apparently in the rear-view mirror to stay (his range factor was a league-worst for CF'ers in 2007), he'd be a tough sell as a stand alone. Armed with a no-trade, a move to a contender would be preferred, but if the Blue Jays get any worse, who's to say he doesn't loosen his criteria for relocation?

Consider AJ Burnett and his well-documented mental lapses and trade eligibility as the perfect addition to any potential trade package. He all but asked for a ticket out of town, and what better way to spite him then send his ass to a struggling Colorado team?

All that Jays GM JP Riccardi need ask for in return? A near-MVP and a potential stud left-hander. However unlikely the transaction in the form above, acquiring pieces like Holliday and Francis could go a long way in solidifying the Jays push to get out of the AL East for the first time since 1993. Pitching, particularly left-handers, will always be welcomed. As a Canadian-lad, Jeff Francis would likely welcome the trade with open arms, having little connection to the Rockies other than his roots in Vancouver.

Holliday is coming off his best season to date and is a potential franchise slugger. Following his RotY performance in 2004, Matt has steadily improved on his ability to hit for average and power. Nearing triple-crown numbers last season he lead the Rockies in their push for the World Series title and was reward with a 2-year extension. With the Rockies in a tenuous financial situation, perhaps Holliday will welcome a transition to a team willing to re-up their studs in manner fitting (and in the case of Wells, surpassing) their contribution.

But, does it work for both sides? Not really, no. The Rockies would be crazy to part with both of these relative youngsters for guys that are looking washed up and potentially past-prime. Asking for both Francis and Holliday will likely receive a laugh from Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd. The trade is design to elicit a counter-offer, perhaps in the form of Holliday and a pitching prospect.

With the prospect representing fair value for the near valueless AJ Burnett, one switches their attention to the Wells v. Holliday discussion. The numbers and potential greatly favor Holliday, so what's in it for the Rockies? Perhaps the addition of some maturity (?) and a little bit of presence in the locker room? Nah. Wells has shown these attributes to be minimal, but managers can fall in love with past performances which in this case, might be his (and Torontos') saving grace.

The likelihood of a deal like this being executed is admittedly quite low. Perhaps this piece best serves are a barometer for the (sadly lacking) talent of certain Blue Jays. At best the Rockies agree to a blockbuster and get robbed of two promising players for two over-paid disappointments. At worst, the Jays let AJ walk at seasons end, and Vernon flounder in center as Rios' defensive talents marinate in right. The end game is JP Riccardi's failure manifest in a playoff-less Blue Jays team so desperate to shake things up they are signing everyone from the 92-93 World Championships. Burn.

Thanks for reading. Be sure to check out the Radio show tomorrow (Tuesday 6-9pm) and subscribe to show your love. Cheers, Derek.

AJ Burnett burns the Blue Jays; they don't mind.

AJ Burnett is going to get traded; we should get used to talking about this. If and until it happens, according to him, he's pitching the best he can for the Blue Jays. However, if a trade happens he'll welcome it with “open arms”.

So you're thinking I am going to turn this into a rip on the same jackass who tipped his hat after being a dumpster fire last week, but I'm not. I ripped him for his gesture then because he was being defiant and agitating to the people who want nothing more than to see him succeed. Thats the not the attitude fans want to see, but honest by contrast is greatly desired.

So when AJ Burnett says:

“If something were to happen and I'd have the opportunity to go to a place where baseball is breakfast, lunch and dinner, that would be awesome. Right now, my focus is with this club. But if something like that were to happen, I'd accept it with open arms. “

... I can deal with it. Not because I'm a fan, or even a supporter, but because I think he's totally in line with everyones expectations. Who doesn't respect a little honesty from an athlete these days? I welcome any comment not a clichéd sound bite the same way I would a free lapdance: the more the merrier. Burnett just broke the mold in a fashion we'd expect from the Mad Ink member.

He is a talented pitcher who has underachieved and and frustrated as a Blue Jay. His contract contains an opt out clause at seasons' end. The team is struggling, has excellent young starters and needs a bat. It all adds up to Burnett being logical trade bait – everyone knows this. His decision to address the matter in the manner he did shows his character: I welcome a trade, but I'll bust my ass while I'm here.

That's Burnett – in your face and nasty. Also, a relatively simple man as exhibited by his two-pitch arsenal. His response is what a millionaire athlete on a well-paid 3-year stop over in Toronto is probably thinking, except he's the only one with the stones to say it.

Burnetts' get-out-of-jail card in my books is the fact that effort doesn't explain his flaws. (In fact, he could use a little less at times, particularly when his control issues arise.) Because it's always been there for Allan James, we'll know when it isn't. It doesn't suit his purpose to screw the pooch and someone as shrewd as Burnett (at least in the current situational context) has recognized this. (OK, maybe his agent told him...)

Whatever the compensation outcome for Burnett and the Blue Jays both parties will be better off. Don't waste time and energy getting upset over a player that we already knew would rather be playing elsewhere. Instead, lets focus on the ROI; a youngster with a bat in the outfield might be great, but I'm sure Riccardi will manage to get much, much less. Maybe at that point we can finally get to talking about his ticket out of town...

Thanks for reading. Check out the Radio show Tomorrow (Tuesday) night and subscribe for the win. Cheers, Derek.

Is the Blue Jays potential being stiffled by their mismanagment? Um, yeah.

Whats up in the MLB? The Blue Jays are behind in the standings. Get it? ------------->

If passive managing was the fashion required to produce champions in baseball, one would rightly assume bench managers wouldn't exist. The fact that they do, in spite of Toronto Blue Jays Manager John Gibbons reluctance to assume the role, makes one question his value as he appears to be a well-paid spectator, interested merely in the full-access to the clubhouse spread. In contrast to his conduct, the finest illustration of his importance lies in the teams mediocrity under his passive reign.

Managing is about pushing the right buttons at the right time. Simple but vital are coordinating the tangible fundamentals like batting order, fielding position; technical maneuvering in the form of controlling base runners and utilizing a pinch hitter and the bullpen moves. These are things that John Gibbons has (tragically) only recently adopted and integrated into his managerial collection d'armes. Lacking however, is a consistent effort to control the intangible side of the game by nurturing his players' psyche.

On countless occasions I've espoused the montra: team identity is essential to success. It's here where Gibbys glowing mismanagement affects the Blue Jays the most. His lack of psychological influence on this squad makes them the best team in the MLB at finding a ways to lose. They've stranded more men than Mary Rose, have their right-fielder playing center (and vice-versa), and continue to flounder in the standings as a result.

Insisting that the bats will come around won't make it so; having a definitive batting order and a set role for every guy on the team will. Instead, the Gibbons pencils in his lineup card much the same way children enjoy their Lite Brite – pull a colour out of the pile and toss it in to make something special. But, unlike the spectrum of coloured pegs in the aforementioned kids game, all Gibbons has to choose from is grey – arguably by his own error.

Gibbons shuffles his players so frequently they have all melded themselves into jack-of-all-trade types, ostensibly mastering none. Indistinguishable from one another the Jays diffuse the responsibilities fulfilled by winning teams. In this, the irony of their battle with .500 during Gibbys tenure is brilliantly personified. Without a role, the player lacks a specified purpose, and the team lacks a distinct identity. On Gibbons squad, guys don't hit for power or average, they just hit. They approach every at-bat with the blind ambition of a little leaguer swinging for the fences in desperation, unlike winning clubs whose approach to the plate is calcuated and meticulous.

Granted the players have contributed their share of failures, leaving only a fool blaming John Gibbons exclusively. However, his shortcomings seem to account for a great deal of the issues with the Toronto Blue Jays and their lack of mental focus and clutch execution. Gibbons needs to stick his neck out and establish a role for every player according to a winning philosophy. Place the responsibility squarely on the shoulders of those most fit to carry the load, and ride that wave of newly-minted identity as far as the bastard will carry you.

Moneyball in the MLB: Why the Jays Won't Make the Playoffs

My open love for the Toronto Blue Jays has caused me a measurable degree of strife when conjuring a topic for my Thursday MLB piece. As the date will attest, my reluctance to speak truthfully and realistically on the fate of this years Blue Jays squad and the MLB playoffs has delayed the submission altogether. So procrastination be damned, and I'll be frank in order to hasten the onset of certain agony: the Blue Jays (sadly) will not make the playoffs this year.

In a sporting era of outstanding league-wide competitive balance, the scenario facing the Blue Jays in the AL East is similar to the polarization of talent which sports fans across North America are well acquainted with. The highly competitive AL East, the Western Conferences of the NBA and NHL, and the AFC in the NFL all proudly stand alongside one another touting the distinction of superiority. The effect remains clearly discernible for playoff hopefuls like Toronto who yearn for the luxury of competing against inferior talent; a luxury lost on the Blue Jays for over a decade caused by the prevalence of the Moneyball culture in the American League.

Unlike the other major sporting leagues whose spending is restricted by the owner-loving, player-robbing salary cap, the polarization of talent in baseball has been fostered through Moneyball. This philosophy, in contrast to Sabremetrics, is applied by teams in the affluent North East with abundant free capital used to purchase player services at rates otherwise unaffordable to smaller, less wealthy teams. What does this mean for the Blue Jays?

Interestingly, they are a combination of both philosophies, thanks largely Owner Ted Rogers for opening up his wallet, and secondarily to GM JP Ricciardi and the tutelage he received during his time with the Oakland Athletics. While his tenure as GM in Toronto has yielded a team with a poor identity and shattered expectations, the Blue Jays of 2008 have been said to change all that riding their strong pitching staff and post-surgery stars, BJ Ryan and Vernon Wells. While superficially it may appear that the Blue Jays have the tools to win 90+ games, but their fans are best suited understanding the limitations of the Black Hole in which they are entrenched, and applying the following conclusions to their expectations.

Each league awards 4 playoff spots, 3 to the winners of the respective divisions and the last (the wild card) to the outstanding team with greatest number of victories. There are two formidable opponents within the AL's NE division (arguably the toughest in baseball) in the form of the Yankees and the Red Sox. All rational delineation leads me to believe the Blue Jays cannot win the AL East, hence their goals must be fixed upon sneaking in as a wild-card. The only problem: winning the Wild Card will, in all likelihood, be more difficult than the proposed futility of challenging for their division title.

The AL Central has the Indians and the Tigers, the AL West has the Mariners and the Angles, all teams capable of winning the lions share in their respective divisions. Adding the three contenders from the well-stocked AL East (Boston , NY and Toronto) a little math dictates that the 4 non-division winners will be fighting for the lone wild card.

Considered in these terms it looks entirely bleak for the Blue Jays in a season erroneously dubbed by some to have the greatest hope and potential to-date under Ricciadri and Gibbons. The landscape of the MLB has thrown the Blue Jays a nearly un-hittable pitch set to perpetuate their lack of achievement over the course of the 15 years. Naturally their struggles can be attributed to a number of the aforementioned impedances, be it financial restrictions, personnel decisions or injuries. Nevertheless fans in Toronto should demand more for this organization, lest they get stuck with the perennially over-hyped and underachieving Toronto franchise that is sadly becoming the hallmark of the cities' sports organizations.