7 Habits of Highly Effective NHL Forecasting: Part IV

To open the Western Conference, I honour the champions from last season: The CENTRAL DIVISION. ---------------------------------


Detroit Red Wings:
What is there to say? They have been lauded endlessly since destroying the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup final, lost no one of significance and gained Marion Hossa: they took a great thing and made it better (like undressing the Mona Lisa, or loading beer and strippers onto Noahs Ark). The only reasonable assumption is that they will be on par with their achievements last year -- a championship standard that is difficult to live up to. With a target squarely on their already-battled-worn backs I would not be surprised to see the injury bug sweep through the team. The subjective nature of that aside, Zetterberg, Datsuk, Hossa, Holmstrom, Frazen, Lidstrom, Rafalski and insert All Star here will make others look stupid on-the-regular throughout the season and well into the playoffs. Repeat? Ask me when they get to the dance.

2008 Record: 54-21-7, 1st Central
'09 Projection: 49-25-8, 1st Central

Chicago Blackhawks:
-- are the sweet heart team in the Western Conference this year. Look for them to sweep hockey fans off of their feet (straight onto the band wagon) much the same way Washington did last season, minus the AO-like dominance from their young snipers. Kane, Toews and Sharp carried the offense last year on a Blackhawks team that missed the playoffs by a slim margin (which may be accounted for by exuberant rookies playing too hungover on the road, something veteran piss-tank Robert Lang surely advised them on in the off-season). They added free-agent Brian Campbell to an already stacked offensively-adept blue line (Keith, Seabrook). Apparently trending upwards and due for a playoff appearance there remains some problems capable of grounding their expectations: Will Pat Sharp back up his shockingly productive season of '08 similarly in '09? How will they get rid of Knabiboulin and his 6.75mil contract so that newly-signed free-agent Christobal Huet can call the team his own? Whether or not they materialize into a threat this season is debatable, but their future is very positive as indicated by the willingness of Scotty Bowman to leave Detriot for Chi Town. This is a playoff team, but they need to iron out a few things before they can win it all.

2008 Record: 40-34-8, 2nd Central
'09 Projection: 42-30-10, 2nd Central


Nashville Predators
-- should prepare themselves to be usurped by Chicago as the 2nd-best team in the Detriot-dominated division. While they're at it, might as well err on the side of caution and be ready for numerous Western conference teams to fly past them having made zero notable moves in the off-season. Naturally I know headlines are not correlated to performance, but an offense with the punch of a Jaleel White circa 1995 is. With 2/3's of their second line doubtful (Alex Radulov set to play in Russia, Steve Sullivan's back doesn't work anymore) the Pred's need Arnott, Dumont, Erat and Legwand to produce over what most reasonable prognosticators will expect. Their saving grace will be their strong defense (Suter, Hamhuis, Weber) which will regrettably be without offensively-gifted Martin Zidlicky (gone to Minnesota). In support of their admirable cast of blue-liners is emerging goaltending star Dan Ellis (fantasy alert?). He was stellar during both the regular season (23-10-3, 6SO, 2.34GAA, .924%) and the playoffs (.938% over 6 games). Should he continue to demonstrate this type of consistency and reliability Nashville will be sniffing around the bottom of the playoff rankings in lieu of spiralling down the shit can.

2008 Record: 41-32-9, 2nd Central
'09 Projection: 39-34-9 3rd Central


Columbus Blue Jackets
-- are not only competing for their first-ever playoff appearance in '09, but are also in contention for the most numerous roster changes. They finally said goodbye to frustrating forward Nik Zherdev (who as an aside is still held in high regard by Doug MacLean. It's hard for your draft picks to live up to Gretzky when they play like Valari Bure, Dougie. Welcome to radio). Also wearing other threads are Hainsey, Brule and Dan Fritsche all of whom will contribute on their new clubs, albeit to varying degrees with Hainsey purportedly the most promising for the otherwise burning-tires-and-skunks-awful Atlanta Thrashers. Their top line is respectable (Nash - Umberger - Huselius), but everything between them and goaltender Pascal Leclaire is unimpressive. With Raffi Torres on the second line, Mike Commodore playing top 2 minutes its looks like the Battle of Fallen Timbers all over again.

2008 Record: 34-36-12, 4th Central
'09 Projection: 36-34-12, 4th Central


St. Louis Blues
-- John Davidson is viewed as a miracle worker by some given the resurgence of the team during his tenure (est. June 2006). However, their on-ice successes have much more to do with the brilliance of Brad Boyes and his 43-gino career-year. His partner-in-crime is sneaky point-producer Andy MacDonald who shares his habit of making plays and setting up tap-ins with their aging linemate (Paul 'if only prime wasn't so far away' Kariya). This will be another rung up the rebuilding latter for the hockey team in Mizzou, so we might get to see a lot of promising young talent, but only for 82 games or less.

2008 Record: 33-36-13, 5th Central
'09 Projection: 35-35-12, 5th Central

24's on Ice: A Guide to Watching the NHL in 2009

I don't get Versus and I know Americans try hard to hate hockey, so my efforts to help out with this piece are likely in vain.

Nevertheless, Versus has released their TV Schedule for the 08-09 NHL Season and I wanted to offer a viewing guide for those interested in setting their TVO's months in advance. To further my assistance in the matter the games will be judged on a scale we are all familiar with: intoxication.

I'd Watch it Sober:
Oct. 14* 7:30 pm Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
-- Division rivals that battled all season last year. This won't be the only Pens game worth seeing with your wits about you.

Jan. 12* 8:00 pm Detroit at Dallas
-- A very probable preview to the Western Conference Final, this one will turn your crank all on its own.

Mar. 17 7:30 pm Philadelphia at Detroit
-- While we're on potential previews, here is a late-season bout between the two clubs who could very well battle for the right to Lord Stanley's mug (Philly offering the best value for '09).

Might Need a Sixer:
Oct. 5 2:30 pm Ottawa at Pittsburgh
-- Two of last years' favorites clash nice and early in '08-'09. The playoff history between these two teams means we might get a rare regular-season game with intensity.

Nov. 10 7:00 pm Tampa Bay at Washington
-- give me AO and a vastly improved Lightning squad any day. This one will be good enough to enjoy sober as a judge, which is exactly why I'll take it up a notch with the suds.

Mar. 31 7:30 pm Chicago at Montreal
-- One of these teams could over-achieve and make a lengthy playoffs run so the idea of them facing off late in the season stokes me up. Have one for each Toews, Kane and Sharp while they battle the Brothers Kostitsyn and Carey Price (maybe a few for the latter as well).

You bring a case, I'll bring a bag:
Nov. 11* 7:00 pm Pittsburgh at Detroit
-- Stanley Cup re-match. Pittsburgh got worse and Detroit got better, but revenge is well nigh.

Jan. 5* 7:00 pm Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
-- I can't frigging believe I'm all over the Penguins again, but this scheduale is deficient in match up's worth getting excited about.


Take 4 Deux Deux Deux's for a little pop:
Nov. 25* 7:00 pm St. Louis at Nashville
-- Chris Berman has been dreading this one. Have you ever heard of Canadian Asprin?

Jan. 24/25 All-Star Weekend
-- I don't want to be another guy crushing the All Star festivities, but they are more disappointing than the Canadian Summer Olympic team. It might look good on paper, but rarely delivers...


[Hat Tip to Greg from Puck Daddy who inspired this article and broke it down nicely here.]

Thanks for reading, and by all means subscribe and come back real soon. Cheers, Derek.

Dealing with Crooks is Gary Bettmans' Fatal Blunder!

Well, it appears the perfect image from melroserocks blog has been eaten by the internet. What a shame, thankfully here's an equally compromising shot. ---------->

It's tough to fire people for being stupid, because doing so implies the error was that of the hiring agent and not the discarded individual themselves. However, firing someone for being dishonest and subverted is contrarily fun and easy. Assholes that are ignorant (or arrogant) enough to lie and deceive others deserve the guillotine when they get burned for their covert practices. Why the tirade in light of my ongoing pursuit of positivity?

Bad judgement is like a disease, I believe this axiomatic. That Bettman has failed in numerous respects as a commissioner of the NHL is unto itself lacking the fatal qualities of his most recently publicized decisions. Because Gary Bettman, the lawyer, ex-NBA official, rat-lookalike, general douche bag and current NHL commissioner has finally made a critical error inspiring the venom spewed above. Others have taken him to task for his part in the back-door non-sense that awarded yet another unfit investor an NHL franchise, but I feel responsible for ensuring this is his last mistake.

Perhaps the firing squad has finished their inexhaustible supply of cigarettes and liquor. Perhaps now they can draw up their guns and inoculate the NHL of its most crippling and virulent problem: its leadership. Gary has made but 30 friends during his tenure in the league: The 30 owners who have reaped windfall profits while the fans have suffered bad TV deals, poor coverage on major networks, rising ticket prices (associated with non-NHL-related cost of living increases) and a slue of inconveniences analogous to being given the short-end of the stick (or taking a fisting for those under 35). Enraged, but powerless the fans have persevered while the owners remain gleaming like silver, safe and proud above the hot struggles of the poor.

I am hopeful this incident will incite action among those of sound morality and adequate influence. I am hopeful change will fix the NHL. I am realistic and disheartened by its unlikelihood. "I was within and without, simultaneously enchanted and repeled by the inexhaustible variety of life."

Cheers and thanks for reading. Come back soon. Subscribing helps... Check out the radio show tomorrow night (Tues 6-9pm, 101.5FM or live online).

Oprah tells NHL: Hire good people, be successful like me.

Oprah is a ludicrously successful person, but she didn't say that about hockey. /shock/ I think she might know it exists though. Regardless, this is how your NHL team can find success just like O.

This is an interesting time of the year for the NHL in which something incalculably vital to organizational success is going on under the guise of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. This determinant of success is in reference to the host of managerial and coaching contracts being discussed and subsequently signed over the last few weeks.

The invaluable role that coaches and managers play in team success can too easily be overlooked. These types of decisions which influence your on-ice product so tangibly are becoming of increasing importance in an NHL rich with parity. Your teams' path is laid for the future through the executive restructuring ongoing throughout the Spring months currently upon us. How important are the decisions your team is making right now? Very.

In any walk of like, often people of superior talent and intelligence rise to the top – this is why the smartest guys on Wall St. are hedge fund managers, why infomercials feature the same people repeatedly, and of course, why Crosby, Zetterberg, Malkin and Datsuk are so much better than their peers (but, thats another topic altogether). This excruciating analogy speak to the collective desperation in which teams – from all sports leagues -- explore the Saharan pool of available world-class management.

Naturally, the off-season is a happy place where teams dream of a bright future often overlooking the 50% chance they have of finishing in bottom half of the standings. The rampant delusions around this time of year lends itself to the symbiotic shuffling of management and coaching. So you pull the plug on the old hack(s) and bring in the new miracle worker. Funny thing about that though....

There aren't many miracle makers in the business of orchestrating winning sports franchises. All the guys old enough to recall a legacy worth remembering are dating themselves back to the Battle of Queenston Heights (alright, maybe just back to hippies). My point remains: the value of good management is priceless.

Take a quick look over the dog-and-pony show that is the Maple Leafs GM search and you'll have to look no further. The media has obsessed endlessly because it so important to them! Just picture Trader Cliff on the blood pressure monitor 24/7 as he endlessly searches for an adequate solution. Other teams has since resolved their vacancies however, with Dallas, Colorado and Vancouver all putting the pieces in place recently in preparation for the draft.

The Stars locked up the incumbent Brett Hull and Les Jackson by ceremoniously removing their Interm tag, Colorado decided to go back to Tony Granato (who was the bench general from 2002-04), and Vancouver told coach Alain Vigneault that he can wait another year to be a lame duck. (I guess Van City GM Mike Gillis is the old ball breaker hes made out to be.)

Lest we forget the lengths that people and organizations go to in an effort to retain good talent. Several have gone so far as to deny the right to negotiate with an individual under contract (even if, contrary to the customary practice, that job was a promotion).

This is a ruthless business where cash-cow markets can take advantage of their dough simply because there are no salary limitations within the managerial ranks. It encourages the thought: Why are managers and coaches making Darren McCarty-type money, when sane rationality dictates they should be living like Crosby? Eventually, it will come to this, or market principles tell us it should. There will be a great deal of resistance from some owners, but over the course of time their dollar will get stretched by fielding poor teams manifest through poor decision-making executives. In time, it will force these owners to make it rain on someone capable of winning.

How can one deem a GM capable of delivering victories? I'm a strong believer in established team identity as a predictive measure of success (in all sports). Managing means developing this identity and exemplifying it on the ice with the players of the ilk required. It's like seasoning the perfect bone-in Rib Eye streak, or playing jenga – its all about balance and timing. Its about managing the right ingredients to fit the mold you deem most likely to produce championships. But, its not easy...

This is evident around this time of year when we see and hear all of the organizational restructuring (as the GM-types might say it) around the league. It reminds you how exposed and vulnerable they are in a position that always demands success – not merely from the fraternity of their peers, but the ravaging fanatics who pay their salary with ever ticket. Being a GM or a coach is all about risk-reward: thankfully for them, those who succeed are being increasingly compensated for their work. This is a trend, unlike the men themselves, with a termination date far out of sight.

Weekly Wed. All-NHL Podcast #14

Good Afternoon Sarah Shahi. ===>>>>>


Enjoy this weeks musings on all things related to the NHL [Runs 20min].

Topics include:

• Is the Glow Puck is BAAACK? Clearly there are better ways to pimp the NHL, but is this, and focusing on Sidney Crosby all part of the problem and not the solution?
• More vacancies than Detroit Motels: Who will be coaching your team next season?
  
• The Tombstone Reads: Bye-Bye Philly and Dallas. Listen to why they will be golfing in a New York minute, and look forward to a final we've seen before (think NY Islanders dynasty beating the up-and-coming Edmonton Oilers in the 82-83 Final).

Cheers and thank for listening -- Derek.